tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-78539652024-03-07T19:42:25.807+11:00Randomised<b>"To understand and protect our home planet..."</b><br/><i>- omitted from NASA mission statement in Feb, 2006</i>Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.comBlogger251125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-76847514487652007712017-10-02T14:13:00.000+11:002017-10-02T15:01:21.065+11:00Carmichael City Selfie Time!<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="normal">
<span lang="EN">Over the past six months or so, I have been
active in protesting the Australian Government’s support for developing Adani’s
Carmichael coal mine in central Queensland. Paving the way with moneyed
infrastructure and free water to dig a filthy great pit of poor quality coal to
ship in huge quantities in dubious rustbuckets through the Great Barrier Reef
to burn in Indian power stations that are barely profitable is just wrong and
indefensible on so many levels. The Australian and Queensland Government’s
strategy to date has been to rely on sheer inertia, and a catch cry of “ten
thousand jobs” (which are inflated ten-fold, on Adani’s own figures. And never
mind the 90,000 jobs at risk from damaging GBR tourism).</span></div>
<div class="normal">
<br /></div>
<div class="normal">
<span lang="EN">However, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I
don’t want to go through the full details here. For that. I will refer you to
the <a href="http://www.stopadani.com/" target="_blank">Stop Adani site</a>. Instead, I want to offer another perspective: how big *is*
this biggest mine in Australian history?</span></div>
<div class="normal">
<br /></div>
<div class="normal">
<span lang="EN">From a recent conference I attended, I have
learned that many activists speak of arguing from the head and from the heart. Students
of Socrates would immediately recognise these traditions as logos (appeals to
logic) and pathos (appeals to emotion). In practical terms, you will have
difficulty persuading the head until you engage the heart. This article is an
appeal to the heart.</span></div>
<div class="normal">
<br /></div>
<div class="normal">
<span lang="EN">In giving presentations to audiences, one thing
that strikes me is how abstract it seems to talk about the biggest coal mine in
Australian history, and then wave vaguely in the direction of central
Queensland, which covers a vast amount of territory. I find it helps to offer
some visual perspective on whereabouts and size.</span></div>
<div class="normal">
<br /></div>
<div class="normal">
<span lang="EN">So, here goes.</span></div>
<div class="normal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8QKaTDNbh5OWWtnuZS6Lkt4T-438OraYqEKh7jiqni4G_KTsQSYO1PgOr-T85MfrGAjuuBfb0QZcAgwYdqU79d4QUiqDJkdISlw9sob2k7VH1b88jpVRHlgAiaDlWzfY2xhY/s1600/Galilee.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="752" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8QKaTDNbh5OWWtnuZS6Lkt4T-438OraYqEKh7jiqni4G_KTsQSYO1PgOr-T85MfrGAjuuBfb0QZcAgwYdqU79d4QUiqDJkdISlw9sob2k7VH1b88jpVRHlgAiaDlWzfY2xhY/s320/Galilee.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="normal">
<span lang="EN">I will begin with a simple map of Queensland. It
shows the Wangan/Jagalingou lands, the Galillee Basin (where even more coal
resides), the location of the Carmichael Mining lease, Abbotts Point, and the
railway being proposed to connect the two.</span></div>
<div class="normal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJqbQNdZmtBJDzbEapmcphyphenhyphenQxdh76uiWp92CoNCpnP1GfrkGLAFXYYCXChlVzgTtp2k1wD9Yg6jfGpIfic34t4LF4SC34JhY0n9oGZfvRLmUHBpilZZOKT5IeXaPINbqSAGvY/s1600/WanganJagalingou1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1132" data-original-width="1600" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJqbQNdZmtBJDzbEapmcphyphenhyphenQxdh76uiWp92CoNCpnP1GfrkGLAFXYYCXChlVzgTtp2k1wD9Yg6jfGpIfic34t4LF4SC34JhY0n9oGZfvRLmUHBpilZZOKT5IeXaPINbqSAGvY/s320/WanganJagalingou1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="normal">
</div>
<div class="normal">
<span lang="EN">Zooming in a bit, we can see whereabouts in the
Wangan/Jagalingou land the lease is located.</span></div>
<div class="normal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjXYiHNXiD7Ehj8OrsMW4ImnDCJRxs4bjU-wRfFz5k2pY1EuhV_x1OQ-f5nU5lANNTRcpSdFIoihyphenhyphend06dV60TJUCf_eS8nt90Szx18dzhWvLFGQGyf_QPz8NJxixedfA3HmSY/s1600/WanganJagalingou2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1251" data-original-width="1600" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjXYiHNXiD7Ehj8OrsMW4ImnDCJRxs4bjU-wRfFz5k2pY1EuhV_x1OQ-f5nU5lANNTRcpSdFIoihyphenhyphend06dV60TJUCf_eS8nt90Szx18dzhWvLFGQGyf_QPz8NJxixedfA3HmSY/s320/WanganJagalingou2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="normal">
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<span lang="EN">A little bit more, and we have the lease footprint itself, plastered
over the Carmichael river.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN">Now you know where it is. So what does it mean to
call it the largest proposed mine in Australian history? I think it highly
instructive to take Carmichael on a national tour, and have some ‘city selfies’
to see what Carmichael would look like in the back yard.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi95CNQ4V0DaRMyIpvVJ7GTDnyXWdQefrZgbZVoKLiOm_mJ1qlKgzuhjxItGhchyphenhyphenHyJVNgaE8imOecqnpaLodV-n3BtWigHYDdjQ8ho0J_nDOCA3fGlwtcA3k41WdhmdnDrbvc/s1600/Bowen.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="922" data-original-width="1474" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi95CNQ4V0DaRMyIpvVJ7GTDnyXWdQefrZgbZVoKLiOm_mJ1qlKgzuhjxItGhchyphenhyphenHyJVNgaE8imOecqnpaLodV-n3BtWigHYDdjQ8ho0J_nDOCA3fGlwtcA3k41WdhmdnDrbvc/s320/Bowen.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN">Let’s begin with the City of Bowen, conveniently close
to Point Abbott. Carmichael snuggles in nicely. Who needs a billion dollar
railway now? Maybe it would look better cutting the reef off?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmgdQPGPbHz4ilcShAJwCAbplI-uOK8fnGEWMJGO-VIVgv_fpuZYeeUDJcnUGrGU6gWO7SG_tFUjysIQRfHb8cLQ4h_jsstno1X2qogM8lCDfgqBGm9aAw3dRIwJucShmdhWI/s1600/Brisbane.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="770" data-original-width="1124" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmgdQPGPbHz4ilcShAJwCAbplI-uOK8fnGEWMJGO-VIVgv_fpuZYeeUDJcnUGrGU6gWO7SG_tFUjysIQRfHb8cLQ4h_jsstno1X2qogM8lCDfgqBGm9aAw3dRIwJucShmdhWI/s320/Brisbane.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN">Next stop: Brisbane! Who needs Moreton Bay when
you can have a pit, eh @AnnastaciaMP?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5eV5UFUZoOouBw9pHTEpluGEWCf124CmX160MMrvLRnnx3flSr1fxKPawZamZ9q_K3ECrug8zDPrb_dd4XIfP_FQp1bG9EUgjcidqhAcRfEpEQCBTdyB-Cx_7xev-7Cj-1-4/s1600/Sydney.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="771" data-original-width="1125" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5eV5UFUZoOouBw9pHTEpluGEWCf124CmX160MMrvLRnnx3flSr1fxKPawZamZ9q_K3ECrug8zDPrb_dd4XIfP_FQp1bG9EUgjcidqhAcRfEpEQCBTdyB-Cx_7xev-7Cj-1-4/s320/Sydney.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN">Moving down to Sydney! Spans Cronulla to Richmond.
</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2pvA1oBi0VIxM807ytl5cSdkOv4_cfEZ1nW1OdGqLD_7AvpT5KY4A-e4erqdhL1wNza6BYthk9DzOJmGu7cBJ7X1oo6naoDiKHzkGdXXy2iH8YjZ6bLsapdNKhqFk3nxkowA/s1600/Canberra.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="770" data-original-width="1124" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2pvA1oBi0VIxM807ytl5cSdkOv4_cfEZ1nW1OdGqLD_7AvpT5KY4A-e4erqdhL1wNza6BYthk9DzOJmGu7cBJ7X1oo6naoDiKHzkGdXXy2iH8YjZ6bLsapdNKhqFk3nxkowA/s320/Canberra.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN">Canberra, and Queanbeyan would be swallowed
without a trace. Is that a metaphor I spy?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1m1l8OCL7-46aK4xuUj4KgHRyJJJoDZVU7KY2LfOIFe_KZdQjkQeD_Z0XiovKhgsWiHgFsRl3pj4Dra-tmmhgOdwAXiZzJq8y9uzg9KcOew0ccXGfpbXPdgyjslni4svDEME/s1600/Melbourne.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="770" data-original-width="1127" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1m1l8OCL7-46aK4xuUj4KgHRyJJJoDZVU7KY2LfOIFe_KZdQjkQeD_Z0XiovKhgsWiHgFsRl3pj4Dra-tmmhgOdwAXiZzJq8y9uzg9KcOew0ccXGfpbXPdgyjslni4svDEME/s320/Melbourne.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN">In Melbourne, Carmichael may not fit in Port
Phillip Bay, but you could use it to travel from Frankston to Tullamarine.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkcPY5XXK0Ojcm3By15HEtnK_DT0AJclFTwFdiOebFDfYAm53MTRhvnoirLy5Mh8F2poh8-P7vZrFvHrr8RsiqnyF0jM_C6CnlFcs_0O4OGwUAsH2jzs7A6iCnqTMRIi4oN-c/s1600/Hobart.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="770" data-original-width="1126" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkcPY5XXK0Ojcm3By15HEtnK_DT0AJclFTwFdiOebFDfYAm53MTRhvnoirLy5Mh8F2poh8-P7vZrFvHrr8RsiqnyF0jM_C6CnlFcs_0O4OGwUAsH2jzs7A6iCnqTMRIi4oN-c/s320/Hobart.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN">From New Norfolk to Hobart and beyond: Carmichael
on the Derwent.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLtnLm-GeChDp8TlOU_B794ja-aUsmh_o4c5Py4wy_TcFY1lxBu-i9DvJPbEKjdTdH9rsPkjOIiJgVCewVYsERjov1FQBRj6T1kaXefr37r-IndlliiPM6B7OI1Q8FzwKNkag/s1600/Adelaide.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="769" data-original-width="1125" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLtnLm-GeChDp8TlOU_B794ja-aUsmh_o4c5Py4wy_TcFY1lxBu-i9DvJPbEKjdTdH9rsPkjOIiJgVCewVYsERjov1FQBRj6T1kaXefr37r-IndlliiPM6B7OI1Q8FzwKNkag/s320/Adelaide.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN">Adelaide, Elizabeth, Mount Barker, and (nearly) Strathalbyn.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhau6SknvPpUtKxsZGxo_1tj5ji72i5FEKaflx0cXV4-Xd-UKeFHNoohXmUDGBAG6W8Vax24KqF0pxlYwhjS6pld5yY92jgYYkCMGbMh5_nIlbAgZdUlMV7d8Nj3tgkgVJ4kEo/s1600/Perth.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="771" data-original-width="1125" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhau6SknvPpUtKxsZGxo_1tj5ji72i5FEKaflx0cXV4-Xd-UKeFHNoohXmUDGBAG6W8Vax24KqF0pxlYwhjS6pld5yY92jgYYkCMGbMh5_nIlbAgZdUlMV7d8Nj3tgkgVJ4kEo/s320/Perth.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN">Perth: what’s that off Fremantle, and Kwinana,
and Rottnest Island, and... ?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ9hAODsuu3A_FShow9lurxjisOwBXE3Vy4tEnsrLax_tuatMD6z5FpIB67E-018MJtx94Iy4k_BpJM3ij2LUwCwMkv-NBGRsrTGo54phPfXkurQG_Lr0lSOFek8Jf1jTB3Gg/s1600/Darwin.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="771" data-original-width="1124" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ9hAODsuu3A_FShow9lurxjisOwBXE3Vy4tEnsrLax_tuatMD6z5FpIB67E-018MJtx94Iy4k_BpJM3ij2LUwCwMkv-NBGRsrTGo54phPfXkurQG_Lr0lSOFek8Jf1jTB3Gg/s320/Darwin.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN">Darwin to Humpty Doo is only the halfway mark!</span></div>
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<div class="normal">
<span lang="EN">So now you know what they mean by the biggest
(but certainly not the best) coal mine in Australian history. <a href="http://www.stopadani.com/" target="_blank">What do you want to do about it?</a></span></div>
Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-30160242584663002952017-05-23T13:11:00.000+10:002017-05-23T13:11:07.340+10:00Still Not AfraidGrieve for the killed, the maimed, the bereaved.<br />
<br />
But fear? Not Manchester, nor Melbourne, nor Sydney, nor Paris, nor Boston, nor London, nor New York, nor Baghdad, nor Aleppo, nor anywhere Sad Men send their Bang Boys. <br />
<blockquote>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Not Afraid</span></div>
<span style="font-size: 85%;">So,<br />You caught the News today, with your acts of sadness.<br />What was it you were trying to say?<br /><br />Did you want a reaction, from hurt that turns to hating?<br />Blind oaths that there'll be Hell to pay?<br /><br />Well I've got news for you: it doesn't have to be that way!<br />We're bigger than the part you wanted us to play.<br /><br />We can break the mold: the circles that you travel in<br />This may not be the end, but it just might be the start.<br /><br />I'm not afraid of you, no matter what you do,<br />The light just keeps on shining through.<br /><br />I'm going to say it, to your face: the World's a good place.<br />And you can't tell me that's untrue.<br /><br />So we'd just thought we'd say, we are not afraid of you!<br />And hating's not the way, we're going to reply!<br /><br />We'll reach into your heart, to see what makes you play the part!<br />And live to see the day, your own fears will be stayed.<br /><br />The World's a good place (not going to give it up!)<br />The World's a good place (not going to give it up!)</span></blockquote>
(A. R. Fisk - 2005) <br />
<blockquote>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.0/"><img src="https://creativecommons.org/images/public/somerights20.gif" /></a></div>
</blockquote>
Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-18261495420046125872013-02-08T23:44:00.001+11:002017-05-23T13:12:18.228+10:00Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-56421918098840790972013-02-06T13:03:00.001+11:002017-05-23T13:12:18.257+10:00Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-72323918909702040632013-02-06T13:01:00.000+11:002013-02-06T13:12:22.771+11:00Review: Carbon Zero (Imagining Cities That Can Save The Planet)<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"> <span id="internal-source-marker_0.33245290958586304" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://grist.org/carbon-zero/" target="_blank">Carbon Zero</a> should be read by anyone involved in </span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><span id="internal-source-marker_0.33245290958586304" style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">building, maintaining, and living in their community. </span></span></div>
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black;"><a href="http://grist.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/carbonzerologo.jpg?w=290&h=290" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://grist.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/carbonzerologo.jpg?w=290&h=290" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Long
time readers of </span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.worldchanging.com/">Worldchanging</a> will be familiar with most of the themes
Alex Steffen brings together in his latest essay. The 21st century will
bring immense challenges as a result of the profligate burning of fossil
fuels. These challenges are no longer vague future threats. They are
real, and pressing, and can be adequately met by nothing less than a
commitment to complete carbon neutrality.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">In
Carbon Zero, Steffen argues that even a wholesale movement to renewable
energy sources (however desirable) isn’t going to be enough. Not only
must we reduce our dependency on fossil fuels, but we must reduce our
dependence on energy use itself. The best way to achieve this is to
redesign civilisation’s most energy intensive artefact: our cities.</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">"The best-possible scenario would be one in which </span></span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">many cities hurl themselves into fierce competition</span></span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">to lead in a bright green urban<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>boom. </span></span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">That competition is probably not only the key to creating cities<br />that offer the best, most sustainably prosperous lives possible, </span></span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">but also<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>the best answer we have to the planetary crisis we face.</span></span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> We need a race<span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>to carbon zero."</span></span></i></div>
<br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">A
city uses energy in a variety of ways; the most immediately familiar
being the heating, cooling and lighting of buildings. Petrol for
vehicles is another, and one which hints at a much more pervasive energy
drain: that of maintaining the huge infrastructures supporting
relatively low density car-centric suburbs. This is the crux of
Steffen’s thesis: that people who live in higher density ‘walkable’
neighbourhoods consume much less energy for transportation. Furthermore,
they stand ready to make use of a number of cascade effects which not
only improve their quality of life, but make their neighbourhood more
resilient to adversity.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Carbon
Zero offers a bold, positive-sum vision for how we can organise
ourselves to face the challenges of the near future. The execution,
however, will present challenges of its own. I think we have become too
used to seeing our cities grow outward as inner neighbourhoods become
unaffordable to many. How might the inertia of this trend be reversed?
How might we counter the enticement of cheap (up front) housing in the
increasingly remote outer suburbs by packaging local living
competitively? </span><br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: transparent; font-family: Arial; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">In
the afterword, Steffen admits the task of writing Carbon Zero took a
lot more effort than he had first intended. Cities represent a
multi-layered network of interlocking systems well beyond the casual
understanding of individuals. He has a respect for the various planners,
and engineers who would be required to actually implement stuff.
Nevertheless, I think that if Carbon Zero offers one thing above all
else to the various stakeholders in city-scaping, it is a cohesive
vision of what they, with their community’s support, can make possible.</span>Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-73546931124919490422012-06-18T17:54:00.000+10:002012-06-28T09:47:09.874+10:00Let There be an EndI came up with a bit of stilted rhyme and gutter prose, as part of the campaign to <a href="http://endfossilfuelsubsidies.org/twitterstorm">end fossil fuel subsidies</a> at the Rio+20 talks. Why should a trillion dollars of taxpayers' money go toward propping up industries we don't particularly want, which are responsible for large-scale environmental degradation, and whose owners are major champions of supply-side economics anyway?<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.350.org/images/GlobalSubsidies_fail.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="298" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.350.org/images/GlobalSubsidies_fail.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>So, we pay, to sell our future down the pipelines of despair?<br />Do we stand, aside and let the pillage show how not to care?<br />Shall we subsidise the dying? Or invest in futures flying?<br /><br />Can we stop, supporting things that cannot/never will sustain?<br />And instead, uplift the industries that need not stunt our gain?<br />Shall we end the past's sad errors, and embark on new endeavours?<br /><br /><a href="http://www.nature.com/news/2007/071218/full/4501136a.html" title="Kevin Conrad: 2007" >One man once, stood firm and asked the leadless past to step aside</a>.<br />Once more, today, there is a chance to take the future in our stride.<br />We can make an end, and make amend. Speak out! Make good ancestors of us all!</i></blockquote>Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-79904536963878310862012-05-05T15:30:00.000+10:002012-05-05T15:32:28.979+10:00Connecting Dots With A Bridge<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Part of the <a href="http://act.climatedots.org/" rel="nofollow">350 Campaign</a> to 'Connect the Dots' on climate change.</i></span></div>
<br />
May 5, 2012 in Melbourne is a cold, drizzly wet autumn day. Nothing out of the ordinary.<br />
<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKTePXvbSyHF21ggEDiIZnSLdKCRTsS5plt3jI0Zl4SRFdgkUpCLWBCdvAuFPPQ_znku-MzkFgCTJts0hLW06ExLIcAy3NSx2XysYH303wC6zno1R8izwSYzAw_9RQ53FDnHI/s1600/SolwayBridge.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKTePXvbSyHF21ggEDiIZnSLdKCRTsS5plt3jI0Zl4SRFdgkUpCLWBCdvAuFPPQ_znku-MzkFgCTJts0hLW06ExLIcAy3NSx2XysYH303wC6zno1R8izwSYzAw_9RQ53FDnHI/s320/SolwayBridge.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>The new Solway St. Footbridge. Site of old one is visible to left.</i></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The same may be said of a small footbridge crossing Gardiners Creek at the end of Solway St, in Ashburton. It's quite new, having been opened a couple of months ago. It's certainly better designed than the old one, both in terms of structure and approach (the boarding on the opposite side is where the old bridge was located. The path down to it was a bit precipitate over there, and cyclists were well advised to dismount)<br />
<br />
Yes, the old bridge was due for retirement. It happened in January 2011, when it was removed, not by a city engineering crew, but by a flood.<br />
<br />
My personal experience of this flood was to watch a curtain of solid rain descend on my house. It rained, solidly, for 12 hours. A local park became an impromptu swimming pool. A bridge was washed away.<br />
<br />
Elsewhere, vast areas of Victoria were under water. They remained so for months: the first promising crops after ten years of crippling drought utterly ruined.<br />
<br />
This flood was a strange confluence of events: a cold front, crossing
the Australian Bight, met a huge mass of moist air heading south, and
streamed it into the south eastern corner of Australia.<br />
<br />
The cold front was a normal weather pattern. The moist air mass over central Australia came about for two reasons:<br />
<ul>
<li>a strong 'El Nina' event sending a steady airstream from the Indian Ocean over South East Queensland (incidentally also causing massive flooding)</li>
<li>a category 5 cyclone (Yasi) which came out of the Coral Sea to strike the North Queensland coast near Cairns. It's power can be gauged from the fact that it was still rated as a cyclone 24 hours later, when it reached Mt Isa. It was this cyclone that came south, bringing its own moisture with it.</li>
</ul>
So:<br />
<ul>
<li>a bridge was washed away because of...</li>
<li>a flooding rain, which was bought by...</li>
<li>a cold front, and...</li>
<li>a degraded cyclone, squeezing...</li>
<li>an already moist airflow south across Australia like a massive uncontrolled garden hose.</li>
</ul>
Was it just a fluke? Wild weather? Weather is the quality of the day.
The systems that caused this minor calamity (and considerably more major catastrophes elsewhere) had lifetimes measured in
months.<br />
<br />
The crux of this story is about a local insignificant bridge. The theme is about how events sprawled across an entire continent and its surrounding oceans can come to have such a local effect. I've laid out some dots for you to connect as you see fit.Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-17829314411960701192011-12-02T13:44:00.003+11:002011-12-02T14:17:27.717+11:00Let us.. Let us.. = Lettuce! Lettuce!<span style="font-weight: bold;">or, Not Bloody AGW Again!?</span><br /><br />Debating climate change may be considered a futile cause by many. I find that, so long as you're addressing the fourth wall (ie the 'open minded' audience: Yes! You! At the back!) rather than the proponent (who is as unlikely to be persuaded of your argument as you are of theirs), then you might find you can at least put a point down.<br /><br />Of late, I have been making use of a useful set of one-liner retorts to the most common arguments, referring to them as the 'Romm Swat', for Joe Romm of Climate Progress, who has them listed <a href="http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2010/12/28/207253/simple-rebuttals-to-denier-talking-points-with-links-to-the-full-climate-science/">here</a>. They're extensive. They're backed up. They were recently knocked back by this comment:<br /><br /><i></i><blockquote><i>Marcus:<br /><br />I have no idea what the 'Romm swat' is. You seem to be referring to the discredited Skeptical Science catechism.<br />You may be interested in some more details on the collection of errors.</i><br /><i><br />http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/03/john-cook-skeptical-science.html</i></blockquote><br />First of all, Marcus is quite right to wonder what a 'Romm swat' is (although I did give a link...). The original list of rebuttals was created and is maintained by John Cook, who maintains the <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/">Skeptical Science</a> website. While he annotates them with his own clarifications, Romm makes it quite clear who the original source is. So, mea culpa: the confusion is down to me.<br /><br />Second, Marcus' comment is in response to one in which I said the arguments I was 'swatting' seemed to be trotted out again and again, without regard for whether or not they were still valid. Marcus was good enough to provide a link to a post by one <a href="http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/03/john-cook-skeptical-science.html">Lubos Motl</a>, responding to each of Cook's 'catechisms', as Marcus describes them.<br /><br />Strike two! Fair call!<br /><br />Third, the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3707172.html">comments had closed</a> by the time I had read Marcus' response, so I felt obliged to address it, in depth, here.<br /><br />Because that's about as much ground as I'm willing to yield.<br /><br />So, let us check out what Motl says about Cook's rebuttals... Oh, dear!<br /><br />I recently observed that I found statements that began with 'let us...' often ended with euphemisms for '...lead you down the garden path.'. I suppose this is the intention of every polemicist: to persuade. I suppose I'm no different in this, but at least I try only to point out where I think the garden path is and where it might go. I have no wish to put a ring through your nose. That is called 'framing'.<br /><br />Motl's premise begins with 'So let us look at his [Cook's] points and [Motl's] counter-points.'<br /><br />Okayy! Forewarned of the possibility of fairies ahead, I proceeded cautiously.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/John_Cook_small.jpg"><img style="float:right; margin:0 0 10px 10px;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 75px; height: 112px;" src="http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/John_Cook_small.jpg" alt="" title="John Cook" border="0" /></a>First of all, it is to be noted that Motl modestly declined to post a photo of John Cook, as it might invite a negative reaction. It *is* a little in your face, to the point of appearing doctored! Such is the sorry state of public AGW debates, that I initially suspected a bit of weak satire. It appears not, as a favourable review of Sceptical Science by Andrew Revkin <a href="http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/24/a-physics-mavens-take-on-skeptical-science/">uses the same image</a>. A more composed image is <a href="http://www.skepticalscience.com/team.php">now available</a> (see above).<br /><br />Now, getting to the crux, and looking through the first of the 104 points that Motl addresses (Cook now has 173 listed.):<br /><br /><hr /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Argument 1. "It's the sun"</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">Cook: "In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions"</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);">Romm adds: "In the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate have been going in opposite directions."</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">Motl: "I agree with Richard Lindzen [source of argument] that it's silly to try to find "one reason behind all climate change", because the climate is pretty complex and clearly has lots of drivers, and this applies to the opinion that "everything is in the Sun", too. Cook shows that the solar irradiance is too small and largely uncorrelated to the observed changes of temperatures. I agree with that: a typical 0.1% change of the output is enough for a 0.025% change of the temperature in Kelvins which is less than 0.1 °C and unlikely to matter much. But I find it embarrassing for a student of solar physics such as himself to be so narrow-minded. The Sun influences the Earth's atmosphere not only directly by the output but also indirectly, by its magnetic field and its impact on the cosmic rays (via solar wind etc.) and other things. He has completely ignored all these things. Of course, I am actually not certain that these effects are very important for the climate but the evidence - including peer-reviewed articles - is as diverse as the evidence supporting CO2 as an important driver."</span><br /><br />my take: Motl seems to be agreeing, although is doing so via Lindzen, and is suggesting that Cook is being 'narrow minded' in not looking at other solar influences (actually, those are covered extensively in the backing material and commentary)<br />Whatever, possible ad homs aside, this point seems to be ceded by Motl.<br /><br /><hr /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Argument 2. "Climate's changed before"</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">Cook: "Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant forcing."</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);">Romm adds: "Natural climate change in the past proves that climate is sensitive to an energy imbalance. If the planet accumulates heat, global temperatures will go up. Currently, CO2 is imposing an energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Past climate change actually provides evidence for our climate’s sensitivity to CO2."</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">Motl: "Cook says that the previous history of the climate shows that the climate is sensitive to imbalances. Indeed, it is and it has always been. And he says that the past history provides evidence for sensitivity to CO2. Well, it virtually doesn't. CO2, much like other effects, adds imbalances and pushes the temperature around. But there exists no way to disentangle CO2 from many other effects or argue that it has become the most important driver. So the climate continues to change in the same way as it did in the past, by the typical changes per year, decade, and century, and Cook has offered no evidence whatsoever that something has changed about the very fact that the climate is changing."</span><br /><br />My take: Where does Cook say that 'past history provides evidence for sensitivity to CO2'? He doesn't (although Romm is happy to). Nor is it mentioned in the expanded version. Motl has set up a straw man argument.<br />Foul.<br /><br /><hr /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Argument 3. "There is no consensus"</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 51);">Cook: "97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming."</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 0);">Romm adds: "That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 19 countries plus many scientific organizations that study climate science. More specifically, around 95% of active climate researchers actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position."</span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">Motl: "This counter-point #3 is clearly obsolete: Cook tries to argue that 97% climate scientists endorse something - it sounds like a TV commercial. Most of his graphs are obsolete, too - the current support for various AGW-related statements is close to 1/2 of the figures he copied in an "optimistic" moment for his favorite political movement. The reality is that most scientists disagree with the basic tenets of the AGW orthodoxy - and even people like Phil Jones now agree that nothing unprecedented is going on with the climate right now (including no statistically significant warming in 15 years, and the existence of a medieval warm period), while Kevin Trenberth has agreed that the climate hasn't warmed and the popular models are inconsistent with this fact - what a travesty. There still exist large bodies of climate scientists who prefer to promote the panic - because they've been hired to do so or because it results from their political biases (which are mostly leftist in the Academia). The funding for climate science has increased 10-fold in the last 10-20 years - purely because of the possible threat - which means that 90% of the people (or 90% of the funding) is working on proofs of this pre-determined conclusion. At any rate, these discussions provide us with no evidence for the actual science - they're just about an attempt of the largely political movements to intimidate the scientists in the very same way in which Nazis wanted to intimidate the "Jewish science" by the consensus of the "Aryan scientists". Einstein would tell them that it's enough to find one scientist to prove Einstein wrong."</span><br /><br />My take: Motl does not clarify what he means by 'clearly obsolete' and how he can claim it. Indeed, he does not attempt to validate any of the claims made here. The expanded version of Cook's point starts with 'Science achieves a consensus when scientists stop arguing.'. It has been stated <a href="http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2011/10/arguing-with-your-crazy-uncle-about.html" title="see point 3">elsewhere</a> that scientists aren't just sceptics, they're trained sceptics. The debate we're seeing now isn't scientist vs scientist. It's entrenched interest vs. reality. It has also been pointed out that hungry PhD students would be looking to make a killing to topple dominant theories such as AGW if they were showing signs of dodginess. <a href="http://davidbrin.com/climate3.htm">Where are they all</a>?<br /><hr /><br /><br />Motl does go on to argue 101 points in total. But, since he too pauses for a commercial ad break at this point, it seems a good place for me to stop as well.<br /><br />In keeping with earlier remarks about 'Let us...', you now know where the garden path is. Follow the remaining 98 flagstones if you will. I said earlier that I would not put a ring through your nose and lead you down it. Form your own opinion. I will only note that, unlike Cook, Motl offers his own views only, without any backing material.<br /><br />Cook's points are intended as simple rebuttals, As such, they require regular maintenance lest they *do* become simplistic 'catechisms', as Marcus puts them. Motl's post provided an opportunity to do so, even if I found his arguments to be not in the least bit persuasive. I consider Cook's rebuttals to be unscathed and I will continue to use them (although, perhaps, with a more accurate accreditation!)Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-77585655539508967332011-11-02T13:43:00.003+11:002011-11-02T16:05:33.351+11:00Message in a Bottle<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="data:image/jpg;base64,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" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><blockquote style="font-style: italic;">This is prompted by a call from Getup to contribute <a href="http://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/climate-action-now/time-capsule/be-a-part-of-history?t=dXNlcmlkPTI4ODgxLGVtYWlsaWQ9NDM0">a message for a time capsule</a>. Here is my contribution:</blockquote><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><hr/><br />Greetings, from 2011,<br /><br />Part of the invitation to write this message included, in part, a request to 'show future generations you cared enough to speak up in an era when fear and cowardice almost won the day? '<br /><br />Well, speaking from the time, it does not appear to be *quite* that dramatic! Nevertheless, I think I can time the moment I became more engaged with what was going on around me to that crisp, clear, autumn day in New York, when a horribly beautiful sargasso plume of flame and smoke blossomed from the side of the World Trade Centre. In fact, the local time was about 10:45pm, and I had just gone to bed, missing the first confused reports coming in the late News by a matter of minutes. I awoke the next morning thinking that whoever was talking on the radio about the 'greatest day of infamy since Pearl Harbor' was laying it on a bit thick... until the early estimates of over ten thousand casualties was mentioned.<br /><br />And reports of a crash in a field, as passengers of flight 93 tried to wrest control back again.<br /><br />Thankfully, these estimates were halved over time, but I would think that '9/11' still resonates after fifty years... it has certainly defined the political landscape of the last ten.<br /><br />As it happened, my daughter was conceived at about this time. As the details of what Al Qaida stood for coalesced, I felt it behooved me to ensure that she would not have to suffer at the hands of such a misogynistic mindset.<br /><br />There was an initial outpouring of worldwide support and commiseration. It could have been handled so much differently! Without the panic. Without a protracted and ruinous occupation of a country which had no links to Al Qaida (Hussein preferring to brew his own brand of international nastiness). America the Nation could have been shown at its most enlightened.<br /><br />Unfortunately, it became the Age of Spin and Denial.<br /><br />The US government of the time had its own agenda, which it managed to fuse into the ongoing crisis. There are various accounts of how big that agenda was, ranging from simple vengeance, to opportunistic racketeering up to acts of shadow puppetry on behalf of another government.<br /><br />The War on Terror! Huh! For all that they were diligent and meant well, I think that the renewed flight searches by airport security did more to instil a sense of terror and helplessness in the populace than a dozen blown up passenger flights ever could!<br /><br />In the midst of all this, off the coast of Australia, a Norwegian cargo vessel was left stuck in limbo, carrying a huddle of refugees it was now popular to vilify as potential terrorists. Such people were, so we were being told, not above throwing their own children into the water to force authorities to take them in.<br /><br />Except, they weren't, according to the coastguard officers and crew who were on the scene.<br /><br />This message is prompted by the pending passage of the 'Clean Energy Bill' which is, in turn, prompted by a concern about what the CO2 levels were doing. For much of the past ten years, governments have been oblivious, indeed, actively censorious, of this threat. I am afraid that this is what you reap.<br /><br />I find it ironic that two arrogant governments of recent times were shown to be lacking by acts of climate.<br /><br />Cyclone Tracy's destruction of Darwin in 1974, and Hurricane Katrina's 2005 impact on New Orleans and the Louisiana coastline as a whole showed, in their lax handling of the aftermath, that the governments of the day were made of straw. Those 'extreme weather' events may not have bought the edifices tumbling down, but they set the stage.<br /><br />Whitlam and Bush may have shared an overweaning arrogance and hubris, but I think that Whitlam would, at least, have been applying his overweaning arrogance to tackling a problem such as climate change.<br /><br />For Bush, as intricately as he was bound into the oils and fossil fuel industries, it took an obscure PNG spokesman at a 2007 Bali summit to ask 'If you don't want to lead, then get out of the way'<br /><br />Bush may have gone, but his backers remain, and seem intent on maintaining the status quo. Governments may have been moved, reluctantly, from dismissal, to denial, to grudging acceptance, but they have remained paralysed by indecision, and by a lack of resources in the wake of the crash of 2008. This inaction, even after changes in governments, has led to much frustration, as is evident in the umbrella 'occupy' movements that have been springing up in the last month. However comforting the status quo may be, change is afoot (as it happens, I just started writing a story that attempts to weave all this together. If it ever makes it to print, and is still in publication, I hope you enjoy it, as outdated as it will probably appear to you!) .<br /><br />Of course, you will have your own perception of the events of the last decade, and it is pointless for me to speculate on whether what I say can be dismissed as paranoid ramblings, or a rueful shake and a muttered 'you didn't know half of it!' (It is possible that I will still be alive, and join in!)<br /><br />At the time of writing this, we 'know' (as well as any scientific theory can know) that human activity has been causing undue warming of the Earth, and that this will have profound consequences (you are quite possibly experiencing them as you read this) How profound these changes will be is still a matter of debate. That they *will* have profound changes within a generation has only become evident in the last 5-6 years. For that reason alone it is, perhaps, unsurprising that so much resistance to the idea has been encountered.<br /><br />It is a hope that the Clean Energy Bill will precipitate a rush to develop renewable energy sources and this will show the way forward internationally! It is a hope that this action will mitigate what you experience.<br /><br />But.<br /><br />Governments remain paralysed by lobby groups. We may have to rely on individual efforts to remind us of our basic humanity. In telling my story on the War on Terror, I alluded to a few such examples. We are only just beginning to realise that Humanity has been de facto custodian of the planet for a lo-o-ong time. We are still not very good at it. But we're learning.<br /><br />So, what of me? Having made a commitment to making a better less troubled world for my child, I have found that raising that child took up more of my time than saving the world. I suppose this is as it should be, and I think it has paid off (as with a lot of such things, you will be a better judge...!).<br /><br />My contributions to getting a sane policy to tackling climate change on the table have been very modest and peripheral. I have read, observed, and generally borne witness. I write of what I see. I have occasionally offered words of advice, support, and solace to people far more active in trying to bring about a better world than I have been.<br /><br />Even that little would have been impossible without the advent of the improved online interaction made possible by what is now known as Web 2.0. It allowed me to start blogging, to start reaching out and reading of other people's concerns and hopes.<br /><br />You will be opening and reading this some forty years after I have written it. My concerns for you are that you live in a world which is beginning to show the scars of a profligate civilisation. My hope is that you see a way forward from wherever you are; that we acted in time.<br /><br />A little while ago I wrote: <span style="font-style:italic;">"Bridges start out as a means of establishing links that weren't there before. Bridges are important. They need to be built. They need to be maintained."</span>. <br /><br />I think holds true in time as well as space (do you still watch Dr. Who?). It occurs to me, on this rather cold November day in 2011, that someone writing this forty years in the past would have done so with a very real concern that nobody would ever have read it; that the capsule would have been destroyed, or lie amid an ashen, barren landscape.<br /><br />We're still here, so we must be doing something right!Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-59823124813096513832011-10-26T16:59:00.009+11:002011-10-26T18:22:16.542+11:00#OccupyTwitter?I had hoped to flex my newly awakened blogging skills with something light.<br /><br />Instead we have the sight of police chucking tear gas into protestors at #occupyoakland.<br /><br />That is, of course, the hashtag used to follow the news with twitter (it seems that more traditional media sources, acting on police advice, went home early)<br /><br />Oh, that sounds like a conspiracy. Well, I suppose it is, and I'm as much of a sucker for the outlandish theory as the next man.<br /><br />I also possess a certain forensic streak as well and I became a little puzzled with another 'conspiracy'; that none of the 'occupy' tags were trending. This has been discussed for a while back and forth, with no clear conclusion being reached.<br /><br />I went looking.<br /><br />First off, I tried simply counting the number of tweets associated with #ows and the death of Steve Jobs (#ThanksSteve was very prominent at the time) They seemed to be appearing at comparable rates. However, Twitter's trending algorithm isn't just a question of total tweets; it tries to show people what's hot and what isn't. So, there may be some reason why ows wasn't trending? Possibly it had saturated.<br /><br />It turns out that there a number of sites that plot trends for a given set of tweets over time. Most are geared to individuals trying to find out how they're doing.<br /><br />There is one, however, allows you to select hashtags. That is <a href="http://trendistic.indextank.com/">Trendistic</a>. Using it to compare #ows with #ThanksSteve shows that the latter was a clear spike, while 'ows' was an ongoing grumble (with spikes). OK, so maybe 'ows' doesn't trend, but it's persistent.<br /><br />Then came news of tear gas in downtown Oakland...<br /><br />Again, no 'OccupyOakland' appeared in the trending list. However, what *was* appearing was 'Oakland PD' and 'OPD' (Oakland Police Department?)<br /><blockquote style="font-style: italic;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KsIgQPsTkWA/Tqeods8Bq2I/AAAAAAAAAIE/wQjxpbC7ZXU/s1600/Screenshot%2Bat%2B2011-10-26%2B16%253A57%253A21.png"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 296px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KsIgQPsTkWA/Tqeods8Bq2I/AAAAAAAAAIE/wQjxpbC7ZXU/s400/Screenshot%2Bat%2B2011-10-26%2B16%253A57%253A21.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5667683884301658978" border="0" /></a></span><span style="font-size:85%;"><br /></span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:85%;">What is the Oakland PD doing that doesn't involve OccupyOakland?</span></div></blockquote><br /><br />Going back to Trendistic now revealed something *very* interesting.<br /><br />Here's a plot of that trending 'Occupy PD':<br /><blockquote><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vlQtYJXEVdU/TqeqGKU0Z7I/AAAAAAAAAIQ/giZ387vyCjg/s1600/Screenshot%2Bat%2B2011-10-26%2B16%253A58%253A47.png"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 281px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vlQtYJXEVdU/TqeqGKU0Z7I/AAAAAAAAAIQ/giZ387vyCjg/s400/Screenshot%2Bat%2B2011-10-26%2B16%253A58%253A47.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5667685678896670642" border="0" /></a><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:85%;"><span style="font-style: italic;">Occupy PD Trending... at 0.18%.</span><br /></span></div></blockquote><br />There's a respectable spike there. But have a look at the column on the right. Do you see 'OccupyOakland' displayed at the top? I do (I also see ows, shown less prominently)<br /><br />So, here's the trend for 'OccupyOakland' as the dawn breaks over the Bay Area.<br /><br /><blockquote><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QJOfX4atCi4/TqeqoWtsEKI/AAAAAAAAAIc/Y5qNRogeCWE/s1600/Screenshot%2Bat%2B2011-10-26%2B16%253A58%253A01.png"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 279px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-QJOfX4atCi4/TqeqoWtsEKI/AAAAAAAAAIc/Y5qNRogeCWE/s400/Screenshot%2Bat%2B2011-10-26%2B16%253A58%253A01.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5667686266337759394" border="0" /></a><br /><div style="text-align: center; font-style: italic;"><span style="font-size:85%;">OccupyOakland Not Trending... at 0.81%.</span></div></blockquote><br /><br />Whoa! That is a spike that is over 5 times the size as 'Oakland PD'<br /><br />This seems like a case of 'same data, different conclusions'.<br /><br />Twitter has been a mainstay of a lot of popular movements, and it seems churlish, even ungrateful, to point this out.<br /><br />But, dear @Twitter, I think you need to respond to this, and either fix your algorithms, or list the tags you are 'demoting' as well as 'promoting'.<br /><br /><blockquote>Update: Twitter did recently point to a fairly detailed account of how tags trend <a href="http://blog.socialflow.com/post/7120244374/data-reveals-that-occupying-twitter-trending-topics-is-harder-than-it-looks">here</a>. As I said earlier, this may account for #ows, but #OccupyOakland fits the profile, and Trendistic lists it!</blockquote>Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-1389834789975014072011-10-21T14:05:00.003+11:002011-10-21T14:50:24.154+11:00Hello Blogger My Old Friend<span style="font-weight: bold;font-size:100%;" >Or... Why I Write</span><br />If this is a story then, in the traditional sense, it is an incomplete one. It certainly has a beginning, and a developing structure that leads to a middle. I have yet to think of an ending, though.<br /><br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Why I Started</span></span><br />I started writing this blog about 7(!) years ago. I did so as a form of escape. I felt isolated, both socially and professionally and, while it wasn't a full-blown depression, I was feeling pretty blue.<br /><br />It worked! Getting things down on paper/viewable media helped expunge a few inner demons. It wasn't a case of physically pinning writhing, impish homunculi to a web page; I don't think you'll see many examples of specific psycho-analysis going on. What did happen was that I felt a growing sense of empowerment. I could write down thoughts/ideas and come back later to re-read them and think... well think anything from 'What *was* I thinking!?' to 'What was I *taking*!?'.<br /><br />In summary, it allowed me to step back and say 'OK, never mind if nobody is interested in what I say, never mind if an editor hasn't ripped it to shreds and put it back together in a sensible and coherent manner, I can still write some pretty cool stuff.'<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Why I Didn't Start Earlier</span><br />Seems this realisation was important to me. While I did pretty well at school in most subjects, English wasn't my strongest. In fact, I was pretty atrocious at it. I couldn't see the point in reading books and discoursing floridly about motivations and symbolism. Oh, I enjoyed *reading* books (mainly sf of which more shortly), and did so avidly. Unfortunately, what was taught seemed like a lesson in how to stick pins in kittens. My attitude led a somewhat rebellious streak coming out, and the result was predictable: I failed.<br /><br />Well, well! There is now an impish homunculus pinned to this web page! In retrospect, I do not blame the system that screwed me. I could have identified what I wanted to get out of the subject, worked on that, learned to play the game with the rest, and got through. The fault in not doing so is entirely mine.<br /><br />I do feel, however, that I would have done better if a better distinction had been made in the two English streams. The bane of my school existence was titled 'English Expression'. This should have concentrated on 'how to communicate... using English'. Unfortunately, from my introverted, geeky perspective, it was taught in a style more in keeping with its more advanced stream 'English Literature'. Yes! By all means, discuss the clever structures, symbolisms and backgrounds in the latter. There, it may be assumed that you know the basics of the language! Indeed, my grasp of grammar and style wasn't really the issue. English wasn't the problem, it was the *expression*! I just couldn't get my thoughts down on paper fast enough, and became fixated on the prospect of having to write four essays in three hours. I had no thoughts to express! Rather, I was trying too hard: overcompensating, and trying to put down deep and meaningful insights that weren't really to be found in the subject matter.<br /><br />Even so, mea culpa. Now, moving on...<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">What I Wrote</span><br />Where was I? Oh yes, the discovery that<br />a) I *could* actually get my thoughts on paper (courtesy of a bit of remedial work by a long-suffering post-graduate supervisor) and<br />b) though I might say so myself, what I wrote had some pretty interesting points (based on a subsequent reading) Yes, I know this is entirely subjective. Still, a little ego is useful as a catalyst, if nothing else.<br /><br />Now, bear in mind, this blog was started back in 2003. The interactive online tools made possible by what is called 'Web 2.0' were only becoming mainstream. Not all that many people had taken them up. Then again, Rumsfeld had attempted to 'shock and awe' recalcitrant Iraqis with the overwhelming military might of America, Bush was smugly declaring 'Mission Accomplished' from the decks of an aicraft carrier, and a chap called 'Salam Pax' was blogging to tell the world that the truth was a little more complicated than that.<br /><br />Pax inspired me to get on the blogging band wagon. I initially did so from the perspective of having a 'dear diary' to hand.<br /><br />I wrote of geeky things: stuff that occurred to me as they did.<br /><br />I wrote of my growing outrage to the utterly counter-productive manner in which the 'War on Terror' was being waged.<br /><br />I wrote what I thought.<br /><br />Of course, what blogging also allows is *interaction*: not only can you see what other people have written, you can *comment* on it! Not that anyone has, or is likely to, comment extensively here. I'm fine with that, this is a sounding board for me. On the other hand, I began to comment extensively elsewhere. Comments begat responses. Conversations formed, and communities were established.<br /><br />Elsewhere.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">What I Wrote Next</span><br />The number of posts I made to this blog started to diminish. I suppose this is the fate of a lot of toys. Initial wild enthusiasm gives way to fond familiarity, gives way to other things. It wasn't that I gave up blogging entirely. I have started a couple of additional blogs (which you can see in my pofile):<br /><ul><li><a href="http://castinglight.blogspot.com/">Casting Light</a>: a brief attempt to categorise what would be needed for a trustworthy online voting system</li><li><a href="http://badcoding.blogspot.com/">Adventures in Bad Coding</a>: a slightly tongue in cheek, and self-mocking narrative on what problems/disasters/solutions I have encountered while earning a crust as a software developer.</li><li><a href="http://2019chipsdown.blogspot.com/">The Chips Are Down</a>: a fictional account of my experiences in 2019 as the scenarios of the MMORPG 'Superstruct' unfolded.</li></ul><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Why I (Nearly) Stopped Writing</span><br />I discovered the blog's bigger, studious cousin: the wiki<br /><br />I discovered the blog's little, excitable sister: twitter<br /><br />In short, my online presence dispersed. I slept.<br /><br />My circumstances changed as well. I was out of work for a large part of 2009. While this could have been a time to expand on my thoughts online, it is actually quite stressful to be doing nothing, ad I clammed up. The few postings I have then are fairly bitter grumps about <a href="http://randomised.blogspot.com/2009/05/on-value-added-by-middle-folk.html">how useless employment agencies were</a>. The job I then took chewed up a lot of spare time, and wasn't a <a href="http://randomised.blogspot.com/2010/04/heed-cow.html">particularly inspiring</a> job either.<br /><br />Blogs take time to write. For all that I have the confidence to write now, it still doesn't flow quickly. Ideas need to be organised and made coherent (believe me, this post would be anything but coherent if it were posted as written down!)<br /><br />Tweets, however... Pascal's excuse for writing a long letter is automatically excised by the 140 character limit. Write your thought, and be done!<br /><br />I emitted my first faint 'cheep' last December, something about my excellent timing in choosing to ride an errand in a thunderstorm. As it turned out, I was just in time to be deluged by the wikileaks cables controversy. It was a heady time. Oh, I howled my indignation at the absurdity of our so-called leaders with the best of them! I found myself egging on the exploits of 'anonymous' with the rest of the flock.<br /><br />It also occurred to me, in reading some of the cable's contents, that the main target of wikileak's ire should not necessarily be the conduct of the US diplomatic corps. The real news was not the (rather mundane) contents so much as the scandalised over-reaction to having them revealed. It smacked of fear, but of what?<br /><br />Similarly, in recent weeks the 'occupy ...' protests have been occupying time that should perhaps better be spent in getting a job and doing jobs around the house (and, while messages of support may count, being... productive)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Why I Write Now</span><br />Now, however, I have recently received a tweet from Neil Gaiman to use and answer the tag #whyIwrite in celebration of the National Day on Writing (never mind that I'm international). I find, in responding to this simple question, that it involves a *lot* more than a simple 140 characters can encompass. I have taken a voluntary redundancy from that drear job mentioned above, and find I now have time go over the reasons why I write. I doing so, and in looking back on what I have written, I re-discover reasons why I should keep on writing.<br /><br />First, I have as a mascot, a mongoose. It's inversion is representative of the fact that I come from downunder. It's a mongoose because the motto ascribed to that clan by Kipling is 'run and find out'. An early reason for my writing was to find ideas, and link them together.<br /><br />This is not a new concept. Indeed, pointing out ideas is the prime motivation for communication, be it English or hypertext.<br /><br />Going back, I pause by the tales I spun while playing <a href="http://archive.superstructgame.net/">Superstruct</a>. From the perspective of another man, three years older, I find some of them frankly astonishing.<br /><br />I wrote of '<a href="http://archive.superstructgame.net/node/127">Rook Parliaments</a>', allowing refugees to maintain a cohesive sense of self-governing community.<br /><br />I wrote of 'surfing the superthreat cascade' by <a href="http://archive.superstructgame.net/node/360">complementarianism</a>: piling on initiatives that caused the various threats to counter rather than augment each other in bringing on extinction.<br /><br />I wrote <a href="http://2019chipsdown.blogspot.com/2008/11/garden-in-cloud.html">applications</a> to better display the play between other people in the game (they worked too, although the back-end database is no longer available)<br /><br />There is a thread there, one that is captured by a chap called <a href="http://www.ethanzuckerman.com/blog/2008/09/28/mastermundo-and-the-challenge-of-breaking-rules/">Ethan Zuckerman</a>. He writes of 'homophily', the love of sameness that discourages us from seeking out other perspectives. He talks of the growing need for 'xenophily'; of bridging the gaps between peoples and, as he put it, to tell stories. He ended with a plea for help in promoting this; a plea I now regret to say I never answered.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Why I Will Keep Writing</span><br />I started by saying I haven't thought of an ending to this story of why I write. The act is, of course, intricately bound up with why I read.<br /><br />Why I read is to learn; and to see things differently. Why I write is so that someone, somewhere, may also come to see things differently.<br /><br />Architectual design patterns (the software ones, at least) speak of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bridge_pattern">bridges</a> as a means of linking divergent behaviour together without invoking a combinatorial explosion. Didn't get that? Hmm! Well, never mind! In reality, bridges start out as a means of establishing links that weren't there before.<br /><br />Bridges are important. They need to be built. They need to be maintained.<br /><br />As it happens, in the last week, a few articles have caught my eye:<br /><ul><li>A <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228341.600-they-said-it-couldnt-be-done-7-impossible-inventions.html">coverage of 'absurd' inventions</a> that have gone on to become commonplace anyway. Included in the list is the 'Universal Translator'. A useful tool, although I think Zuckerman's needs are deeper.</li><li>A <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21228354.500-revealed--the-capitalist-network-that-runs-the-world.html">graphical description</a> of how about 100 companies effectively control the world's economy. David Brin's excited about this, for a number of reasons I'll leave him to explain <a href="http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/">here</a>. The occupy movement needs to take note as well</li><li>A tweet from Alex Steffen about how <a href="http://www.snotr.com/video/7331/The_Living_Bridge">living trees have been converted into bridges</a>. Think of infrastructure, and of bio-mimicry. Think *AWESOME*<br /></li></ul><br /><br />So, on a bridge, two strangers met, and strangers were no more.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSebnQdP_nJYuzDFGp4oebxsEZ22WHTC8zVz3d-hv1NDKvuDAz5gO7ETsmsPIrvmBCkXBrCFEy2JvQubes2gjtuf-IJq38Sfic3U-r9rbzcD4EARXPbS2ACzgaRA-Ig2yyYrnkFw/s640/1493245031_d922002d62_o.gif"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 640px; height: 403px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSebnQdP_nJYuzDFGp4oebxsEZ22WHTC8zVz3d-hv1NDKvuDAz5gO7ETsmsPIrvmBCkXBrCFEy2JvQubes2gjtuf-IJq38Sfic3U-r9rbzcD4EARXPbS2ACzgaRA-Ig2yyYrnkFw/s640/1493245031_d922002d62_o.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br />And beyond the bridge? What then? The road goes on...Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-80651135113176490732011-03-24T00:35:00.004+11:002017-05-23T13:12:18.346+10:00Review: Worldchanging 2nd EditionA bee has landed.<br /><br />Seven years ago, a couple of guys started posting about possible choices for the future. It wasn't just an exercise in wishful thinking, though, but a composite of the things we already had to and that could make those worlds a reality.<br /><br />Two years later, and they had reported on so much 'stuff' that a book was published. Now, here we are, another five years further on, with a new and revised edition of Worldchanging just arrived in the mail.<br /><br />What's changed? There is, naturally, an additional five years of reports and essays. Lots more 'stuff' and other things. Apart from that, the book has a much more focussed feel to it, with greater emphasis on systems. Climate change, as Steffen puts it in the introduction, has moved from remote and scary to immediate and terrifying. Sure, we've got a lot of tools we can use to combat and mitigate unpleasant changes in our environment, but we are going to have to develop the will to start using them.<br /><br />The book structure remains the same, with articles organised into seven overlapping themes. The story begins by tackling consumer culture in 'Stuff' (no, consumerism isn't evil, but you benefit from becoming familiar with back-stories to production, and investigating how wasteful practices can be reduced by taking responsibility for the waste in a cradle-to-cradle process. Who said that infrastructure was boring?<br /><br />The emphasis then shifts to how to improve the biggest consumer item of all: the home ('Shelter') and, since we live in them more so now than any time in history, the myriad issues of 'Cities' are laid out. Cities, perhaps surprisingly, turn out to be one of the most potent tools we have in dealing with environmental ruin. Indeed, as Flannery has noted elsewhere, cities were the first response to the drying climate in the fertile crescent as the last ice age receded, and the climate became more arid.<br /><br />Cities cannot be fully assessed without considering the people who live in them ('Community'), how they trade with each other ('Business') and how they determine how to live together ('Politics') 'Planet'.<br /><br />The book covers a lot of ground, and five years covers a lot of time. Unsurprisingly, things have changed. While most articles have been bought up to speed, there are a few oversights. A case in point is the mention of Melbourne's program of achieving a compact 'bright green' living space by 2030. In fact, this initiative has been rendered moribund in the last couple of years by a lack of political will.<br /><br />Thus far, the book description could be applied to the first edition of the book. Why might you want to buy more of the same?<br /><br />The book also sounds a sad note, since Worldchanging ceased operations late last year. In Agile terms, a conversation becomes 'dead' as soon as it is documented. In Carribean parlance, Worldchanging was a bright green 'lime' that lasted seven years,<br /><br />Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-71648657083227494332011-03-24T00:25:00.006+11:002011-06-18T00:29:25.953+10:00Review: Reality Is BrokenSo games can save the world, eh?<br /><br />The notion sounds hokey and ridiculous and, while I have been involved with some of Jane McGonigal's online initiatives, I was a bit sceptical about how this book would read.<br /><br />However, a number of people whose opinions I respect, have been enthusiastically promoting this book, and so I placed an order and here we are.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.amazon.com/Reality-Broken-Games-Better-Change/dp/1594202850" title="Click for Amazon entry"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 300px; height: 300px;" src="http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51bobQmtACL._SL500_AA300_.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br />I needn't have worried. In fact Jane proves herself to be a more than able communicator of this extraordinary thesis.<br /><br />Yes, reality is broken. You may not realise it, but you know it from the moment you face another grey Monday morning to the indeterminate period when you are drawn by the prospect of Friday evening. Yes, games can fix that reality. Games are already what makes that reality bearable as it is. Going to work by public transport? Look around you. Note the number of people looking at their mobile devices.<br /><br />Escape!<br /><br />It's nothing new. Herodotus gives an account of how the ancient Lydians set aside alternate days for dice games in order to take their minds off a devastating famine.<br /><br />Moving to the present day, McGonigal cites the astounding number of man hours that people invest in playing 'Worlds of Warcraft' alone, and wonders how all this creative activity could be harnessed to actually solve the real-life problems that lead to this escapist behaviour.<br /><br />What follows next is an investigation of what makes for a good game (and not just computer games). McGonigal draws on her own experiences of designing and playing games to illustrate features that make a game that is engaging.<br /><br />The book moves from traditional shoot 'em ups, through to puzzles. From solitaire to MMORPG. We are introduced to the buzz of an epic win (and the engaging thrills of 'epic fails' as well!) . All the while, the objective is maintained, until we are introduced to games that actively try to solve a real world problem.<br /><br />The style is engaging and, while the pace may lag a little when describing the mechanisms of individual games the reader may not be familiar with, the examples demonstrate a point that is woven into the overall theme.<br /><br />And what of the Lydians? What happened to them? I recommend you read the book and find out!Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-91091379939681398842011-03-23T23:51:00.003+11:002017-05-23T13:12:18.356+10:00Review: Here On EarthI can remember being utterly entranced by the breadth of vision offered by Arthur C Clarke in a collection of essays titled 'Profiles of The Future'. In retrospect, some of those technological imaginings (such as mass transport by hovercraft) seem ridiculously quaint. Well, being wrong is an occupational hazard, as Clarke would have readily admitted. Nevertheless, those essays still invoke a sense of wonder in my mind whenever I think of them.<br /><br />In Tim Flannery's latest book 'Here on Earth', I find that sense of wonder renewed.<br /><br />The two works have little in common: Clarke was concerned with technological innovation whereas Flannery is describing a history of Life on Earth as told from two quite different, but mutually supporting views of evolutionary theory.<br /><br />The most well known of these is, of course, the reductionist approach laid out by Darwin and championed in recent years by Richard Dawkins. Evolution proceeds as genes are handed down to successive generations by individuals who live long enough to breed.<br /><br />And yet, it was only through the intervention of Huxley, and the good nature of its author, Alfred Wallace, that an alternative theory did not gain ascendency. Wallace proposed a more holistic theory of evolution; expressed in terms of system feedback rather than individual merit.<br /><br />Today, Wallace is largely forgotten or, when he is remembered, dismissed as eccentric. However, as Flannery points out, his work sets the scene for Lovelock's Gaia hypothesis, and serves as a foundation for meteorology, and even exobiology.<br /><br />Taking these two approaches together, Flannery proceeds to chart the history of the Earth and, from the start, it proves to be a most fascinating journey. Life, it seems, made tectonics feasible by facilitating the circulation of lubricating water between plates. It caused metallic salts dissolved in the nascent oceans to be concentrated into ore bodies in the crust.<br />Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-64263611461058863782011-02-05T14:54:00.005+11:002011-02-08T00:49:59.365+11:00The Cult of Xocolatl<blockquote><span style="font-size:85%;">NB: This whimsical tale was inspired by the little game of 'Social Chocolate' that Jane McGonigal and friends have put up. They should not be blamed for what follows:<br /><br /></span></blockquote><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">The Cult of Xocolatl</span><br /></div><br />The citizens bustled about their town, seeking out and avoiding in turn whichever of their fellows they encountered. As they went about their businesses, none were aware that a predatory meme had recently come to lay in ambush; waiting in frozen anticipation for the right moment.<br /><br />There! One individual, coming closer, closer...<br /><br />Insight!<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:180%;">⊗</span><br /></div><br />Blinding! Obvious! Undeniable! The touched forgot all else but the rapturous indoctrination of:<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center; font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size:180%;">⊗</span>...! <span style="font-size:180%;">⊗</span>...!<br /></div><br />All around, most were oblivious to what had occurred. Nevertheless, in time, others approached the stilled prophet. Reaching out, they received, in turn, a share of the vision that had been granted to the eXalted One, who came to be known as the 'Column of Light', a conduit of vision:<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;">'Col'.<br /></div><br />However, the newly adoring saw, not the vision, but the one who had received it. So, the refrain they added changed the message:<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center; font-weight: bold;"><span style="font-size:180%;">⊗</span>-Col! <span style="font-size:180%;">⊗</span>-Col!<br /></div><br />The growing cluster of these acolytes did not escape notice. Others drew close. The eXalted One was surrounded by the priesthood now, and commoners felt only what they passed on: not the vision, even the witness to a vision, but the news of the witness. Even so, many were encouraged by the prospect of A Tiny Light of glowing comfort in what was, it came to them, a grey despairing existence. They pressed in, to heed the words of the message.<br /><br />Others shrugged indifferently.<br /><br />Still others sought to dissuade their companions from something best not associated with. Yet always, slowly, inexorably, the congregation grew; raising voices in a self-evident hymn of rapture:<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center; font-weight: bold;">⊗-Col-ATL! ⊗-Col-ATL!<br /></div><br />And so the meme fed, and there was bliss!<br /><br /><blockquote><span style="font-size:85%;">To make your very own 'Cult of Xocolatl'<br /><br />1. Go to the <a href="http://socialchocolate.com/">Social Chocolate</a> website<br />2. place your mouse cursor anywhere on the playing area<br />3. go and have a cup of hot cocoa, and see what happens!<br /><br />NB: this is quite contrary to the spirit of the game but it's interesting to see how many of the goals are fulfilled by doing effectively nothing. As Steve Jackson once said, it always pays to playtest the dumb strategies!</span></blockquote>Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-43606233491465057842011-01-20T14:49:00.003+11:002011-01-20T15:46:49.871+11:00Monument Ad Hominem<blockquote>It matters not what speakers do, <br />so much as what they say.<br />And what thee make of their fine words; <br />where with them would'st thou stray?<br /><br />Shal't set thy sails to see where they might<br />blow thy mind's fleet schooner?<br />Or substitute their shining wit, <br />with monument to Spooner!?</blockquote>Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-12529782299835082192010-12-10T23:23:00.003+11:002017-05-23T13:12:18.216+10:00Another Way to Tilt at WindmillsConsider a circle of 100m radius. A breeze pushes air through it at a steady 36 km/hr. That represent wind blowing past with a total power content of ~ 20 GW *.<br /><br /><br />Following xxxx editorial slamming the practicalities of windfarms, it so happened I attended a brief talk on the potential for off-shore wind farming.<br /><br />It proved to be an eye-opener. Not because the speaker was riveting (he wasn't), but for what he had to say about wind rotor technology; which was that no real innovations in design had occurred in nearly a century, and that a lot could be doen to rectify this.<br /><br />Placement: putting the rotors *behind* the nacelle make the system a lot more responsive to wind changes, it also lends itself to:<br />Flexure: allowing the rotors to flex in response to the forces placed on it reduces the overall need for rigidity (ie weight)<br />Gearing: placing the motor at the bottom of the shaft further reduces the weight in the nacelle<br /><br />* That reasonable figure translates to 3.14*100^2 * 29 *1000/22.4Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-26852539910623761012010-12-05T00:09:00.002+11:002010-12-05T00:23:54.276+11:00I'm Julian!Reading about the recent games of whack-a-rat various folk have been playing with Wikileaks, I have an irrational desire to do a Tony Curtis and leap to my feet shouting "*I'm Spartacus!*".<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQaIREmprlN2KHaYN4-Aiq_xhzdJeSI_nEFcrs2RgJtxFf8PUVm"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 245px; height: 206px;" src="http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQaIREmprlN2KHaYN4-Aiq_xhzdJeSI_nEFcrs2RgJtxFf8PUVm" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><br /><br />Irrational because the Romans dealt with that particular display of mass defiance with brutal efficiency. <br /><br />Still, the populace seem particularly dense when it comes to learning official lessons about championing the underdog. I think it's the satisfaction gained from tearing the mask from a hypocrite's face and holding a mirror up to it while saying "This is the real you. Deny it if you can!"Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-60914441725812861352010-10-16T14:00:00.002+11:002010-10-16T22:06:07.435+11:00Water: It Isn't Just Another Third World ProblemI am taking the 20 minute trudge to work from Flinders Street station, in the pouring rain. Walking along Southbank, there is little shelter and the brisk southerlies make a mockery of any that an umbrella might provide. Naturally, I am getting soaked.<br /><br />Welcome to Melbourne's October! Normally, we're getting increasingly warm, sunny spells. Instead, it's hovering around the low teens with hail and snow in the surrounding hills. It is, one might say philosophically, good growing weather.<br /><br />It's just as well we are getting this wintry, wet blast because the last 12 years has given South Eastern Australia anything but good growing weather.<br /><br />I understand that Melbourne has, for a city of its size, remarkably good water catchments. When full, they provide a reserve of about 5 years supply.<br /><br />We've needed it! This time last year we were at about 25% capacity, and there have been periods recently when the levels have dropped by 20% in a year. Consider the prospect of a modern city of ~3-4 million people with no water supply. You don't just truck those sorts of quantities in from the neighbouring districts; especially when the neighbours are, if anything, even worse off. Consider the prospect of an catchment area comparable to the Mississippi running dry. That was the Murray-Darling basin a couple of years ago. Low water levels in these areas may be more sinister than just a few crazy-paved billabongs either. There is a sulphur-bearing soil type ('Coode Island silt') which has the unpleasant habit of generating sulphuric acid when exposed to air. It can administer the coup de grace to an already reeling river ecosystem.<br /><br />Things turn, and recent rain patterns have been somewhat more generous. Melbourne's water catchments have recovered to 48% (for the first time in four years), a bumper crop is hoped for (by locusts, as well as people). The Murray has reached the sea for the first time in ten years and the Coorong may yet be resuscitated. Nevertheless, climate modelling suggests that SE Australia will become increasingly more dry and arid as global warming proceeds. Even with the rains, we have only just returned to the point where, four years ago, I predicted that <a href="http://randomised.blogspot.com/2006/09/we-need-drink.html">Melbourne was going to be running dry in ten years</a>. What we have is a reprieve.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_6ak3SeqoKBo/TLkQqZFkywI/AAAAAAAAAF8/K7r8n2tIKmM/s1600/Recovery.png"><img href="http://www.melbournewater.com.au/content/water_storages/water_report/zoom_graph.asp" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 283px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_6ak3SeqoKBo/TLkQqZFkywI/AAAAAAAAAF8/K7r8n2tIKmM/s400/Recovery.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5528468338048813826" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:78%;"><span style="font-style: italic;">Despite good rainfalls this winter, water levels have only just recovered from the calamituous dry spell of 2006</span> </span></div><despite good="" rainfalls="" this="" water="" levels="" have="" only="" just="" recovered="" from="" the="" calamituous="" dry="" spell="" of=""><br />Lessons are things that don't kill you. So, what have we learnt?<br /><br />I think it depends on where you look. At a government level, the reaction has been ill-considered and clumsy. The Federal government seeks to take control of the Murray-Darling water allocation system for irrigators and is currently trying to market a 30-40% reduction in allocations. This is so that the environment has something to be getting on with. It is a necessary restraint but one which is going to cause unnecessary angst if applied immediately. Naturally, there is resistance to such a dramatic cut. The State response has been no less eye-rolling. Here the emphasis has been on trying to ensure Melbourne's supply via a pipeline from the Goulburn and a nice, big, expensive, ugly desalination plant. A suggestion that recycling from storm water and sewage was firmly vetoed becuse it was thought that the public would rebel. Ironically, nobody I know has ever been too concerned about recycled water, but most have been scathing about the other two projects. Maybe I don't move in sufficiently 'political' circles. They have, at least, moved from issuing vague decrees about restriction levels to monitoring water usage per person and putting a preferred limit on it (155 litres/day). Mostly, it's being stuck to.<br /><br />At a personal level, people are showering quicker, buying water storage tanks, and using grey water on the garden. Of these little steps, buying water efficient washing machines is probably the biggest improvement one can make. Whatever, these little adjustments *are* making a difference, as can be seen from the rate at which water has been used in 1996 and 2010.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_6ak3SeqoKBo/TLkRUx6mZ8I/AAAAAAAAAGE/PtIQcQTMhv0/s1600/Trend.png"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 281px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_6ak3SeqoKBo/TLkRUx6mZ8I/AAAAAAAAAGE/PtIQcQTMhv0/s400/Trend.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5528469066268174274" border="0" /></a><span style="font-size:78%;">Getting water-wise: consumption at the start of 1997 vs 2010.<br /></span></div><despite good="" rainfalls="" this="" water="" levels="" have="" only="" just="" recovered="" from="" the="" calamituous="" dry="" spell="" of="">The main lesson learnt, though, is not one that comes easily to people sheltered from the worst environmental extremes by a first-world lifestyle.<br /><br />It is this: <span style="font-weight: bold;">water can no longer be taken for granted.</span><br /><br />(Part of <a href="http://blogactionday.change.org/">Blog Action Day</a>)</despite></despite>Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-3331050949742930202010-08-17T23:13:00.002+10:002010-08-17T23:30:43.632+10:00Election Day is World Overshoot Day<a href="http://www.worldchanging.com/archives/011500.html">World Overshoot Day</a> is the day when when human demand on nature surpasses what nature can renewably supply in a year. It has been falling progressively earlier for the last thirty years.<br /><br />In 2010, by the Global Footprint Network's calculations, that day happens to fall on August 21.<br /><br />This is the same day as the Australian federal election.<i><br /></i>Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-30467403701119639602010-08-06T23:20:00.003+10:002010-08-06T23:43:11.698+10:00Political Tweets<blockquote>"Politics is the art of the possible"<br /><div style="text-align: right;">-Otto Von Bismark</div></blockquote><br />This being the case, shouldn't those who would practise the art of the possible first find out what *is* possible?<br /><br /><blockquote>"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable."<br /><div style="text-align: right;">- John Kenneth Galbraith</div></blockquote><br />(or, in the current Australian situation: a choice between the unacceptable and the unthinkable)<br /><br /><blockquote>"Cynicism is obedience"<br />"Optimism is a political act"<br /><div style="text-align: right;">- Alex Steffen</div></blockquote><br />Pessimism is the lot of the flock. The cynical sheepdogs will round you up in due course.<br /><br /><blockquote>"Pig's arse they will!"<br /><div style="text-align: right;">- Moi<br /></div></blockquote>Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-55285101176343010762010-07-31T09:13:00.003+10:002010-07-31T09:54:49.344+10:00Quo Vadis, Australia?This election is shaping up to be one of the most contentious in recent memory.<br /><br />On the left: a Labor government which appears to have gone missing in action: voted in with a mandate which it has refused to pursue. Instead, doggedly pursuing agendas like internet filters which *nobody* wants. Springing mining taxes without warning and then wondering what the fuss is about. Uninspiring.<br /><br />On the right: a formerly Liberal opposition which features a dogmatic and uncharismatic leader who openly embraces the priciples the last government was voted out on. Who ousted the former leader over emissions and tradings and who has been quoted as saying climate change is 'a load of crap' (like a pile of brown coal briquettes, perhaps?) Unthinkable.<br /><br />In the middle, a bunch of greens (in more ways than one, it might be argued. But, in this company, they seem the sanest of the lot). Unpromising.<br /><br />Poll after poll is showing a majority of people and industries want action on emissions: be it carbon taxes or whatever (what they really want is certainty, so they can get on with life. Wouldn't that be nice?)<br /><br />How then, does this point to a Liberal victory? Possibly climate isn't the major factor in most people's decision making (A clean and stable environment strikes me as being fairly basic to the pyramid of Marslowe's heirarchy of needs. But then, I'm not everybody else)<br /><br />Looking at the mess, I have a horrible sense of deja vu: Victoria in the early nineties was a financial basket case. Its government had proven itself unfit to govern and, waiting on the sidelines, there was an opposition that made no attempt to hide its carnivorous aspirations ("we won't announce our policies: they will confuse the electorate"). I know how that story goes!<br /><br />Alex Steffen has said that cynicism is obedience to the status quo, and that optimism is a political act.<br /><br />So here's my take on political optimism:<br /><br />- I will vote green, with Labor prefs.<br /><br />- I will specifically *not* vote for Senator Conroy. (Message to Canberra: there is a message here)<br /><br />- I will get on with doing things like supporting the <a href='http://beyondzeroemissions.org/'>Beyond Zero Emissions</a> plan (which doesn't even have to mention AGW, and has a prayer of being pitchable to either party)<br /><br />- I will not be cowed by the craven bullying of the fossil fool sneer squad.Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-52386163874125652872010-04-23T23:17:00.004+10:002010-04-23T23:55:53.383+10:00Heed The Cow!<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_6ak3SeqoKBo/S9GeKCECj7I/AAAAAAAAAFo/Q93DHvYwWWE/s1600/StrandedCow.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_6ak3SeqoKBo/S9GeKCECj7I/AAAAAAAAAFo/Q93DHvYwWWE/s400/StrandedCow.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5463321718166818738" /></a><br /><br />As it appears likely that my current place of employment will be shifting to the Melbourne Docklands at year's end, I thought it appropriate to check the place out.<br /><br />To the uninitiated the area in question lies just to the west of the Melbourne CBD. It used to be given over to docks, wharfs, railyards and other aspects of civilisation that aren't noted for their sightliness. In the last 5-10 years, however, some bright spark has decided it should go up market with inner city apartments, offices, cafes, giant ferris wheels...<br /><br />Not a bad idea. Unfortunately, someone forgot to stop and wonder whether people really wanted to live and work in a windswept concrete amusement park.<br /><br />I recall going for a job interview in Docklands last year. By the time I had walked 15-20 minutes to reach the place I had already decided I didn't want the job. Second impressions have not changed, and were clearly shared by the sculptor of the above welcoming piece.<br /><br />A washed-up cow pretty much says it all!Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-60838306030767995932010-02-05T23:29:00.003+11:002017-05-23T13:12:18.266+10:00On Transition Towns *and* Bright Green CitiesThis essay was prompted by a critique of Transition Towns by Alex Steffen. While praising of its ability to free people from their isolation, he was less enthusiastic about the empahsis it placed on reducing global He was particularly critical of the romantic 'dark green' nihilistic mindset he perceived as being attracted to the movement (I referred to it as 'masked apocaphilia'). Transitions Towns is currently a phenomenally successful and empowering movement so, as you can imagine, Alex copped an earful in response. Although the bulk of the commentary was quite interesting, it was pity that it was concerned with defending the Transition Town movement's attitudes, and almost completely ignored the more thought provoking part of the essay (what might transcend transition?)<br /><br />I resolved to see what I could come up with. The problem was, I had never investigated what Transition Towns before, and didn't know how fair Alex's assessment had been (for the nutshell, I think his way of expressing his concerns was unnecessarily confrontational, and was not fair to the stated aims of the TT movement. Nevertheless, he was right to point out that obsessing with collapse precludes thinking about more optimistic possibilities. Attracting this sort of mindset could be a possible failure mode for the movement as its popularity increases)<br /><br />So, I went off and read Rob Hopkins Transition Handbook.<br /><br />I will summarise the main points below, but recommend you check out the official site in case I 'get it wrong'<br /><br />The Transition Town movement is concerned with 'closing the loops' of production in society. It is motivated to do so by two impending crises:<br />1. peak oil: the prospect that 'texas tea' is going to be harder to come by as time goes on. (there are a number of other peaks as well: water, food, uranium..., but we'll keep it simple)<br /><br />2. climate change: despite inconvenient truths about stubbornly persistent Himalayan glaciers, things are going to get rather hairy in the not too distant future.<br /><br />Together, TT foresees these effects as combining to bring about a collapse in civilisation. It seeks to ward off this unfortunate outcome by analysing what makes society so vulnerable to these problems, and doing something about it. <br /><br />One of the main risks that TT identifies is the increased dependence on globalisation of trade: not only does this involve shipping goods across large distances (with associated costs) but it also reduces community resilience by removing the need to maintain 'traditional' everyday survival skills. This process has been going on for centuries: when did you last milk a cow, or sew your own clothes, grow your own food or, really, see your local community as being relevant to your life?<br /><br />The aim of the TT movement is to reverse this trend. It seeks to do so by encouraging groups to get together to come up with an 'Energy Descent Action Plan' for their locality to wean it off a dependence on high energy consumption lifestyles to be able to make do with what's to hand. Drawing from techniques derived from permaculture and drug rehabilitation programs (oil usage as an addiction), it establishes a ten step plan for achieving this.<br /><br />This is a very potted description of TT and, put like this, it is easy to see how Alex concluded that the movement was prone to obsess about putting up the shutters against the gathering storm. In fact, the way in which the TT is structured to approach its goal has a number of safeguards against introversion. It's ten-step program is meticulous about seeking to include all community members, and *not* relying on a few visionary types (which could otherwise result in a gated commune, of no use to anyone)<br /><br />One of the most consistent criticisms levelled at Alex was that he didn't get TT and had made his comments based on a very superficial reading. There may be a certain truth here but, it overlooks Alex's own background in the sustainability movement, that his approach is a good deal more holisitic, and that his overall aims are a little more ambitious aims <br /><br />What does a bright green city look like? Alex doesn't quite know yet (he's still writing the book!), but he has made a few tentative projections.<br /><br />All of this is encompassed by Transition Town principles! So why the flurry? <br />1. TT places a greater emphasis on peak oil than climate change<br />2. despite protestations, there *is* an element in the TT movement which focusses on collapse as inevitable, and therefore irresistibleTony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7853965.post-20686352499679175452009-12-31T23:59:00.000+11:002010-02-04T00:03:49.841+11:00LongPlayer: Happy Tenth Anniversary!In this age of rush and deadline, it seems bizarre that anyone would have the time to listen to a piece of music that lasts for a thousand years (let alone write it!)<br /><br />Nevertheless, that is what Jem Finer did. His <a href="http://longplayer.org/what/overview.php">LongPLayer</a> composition was first played (and is still playing) on midnight on December 31, 1999. It will end (if the world doesn't do it first) on December 31, 2999.<br /><br />Actually, what this (as well as the Long Now project) seeks to show is that people are able to look a little further ahead than the end of the current financial year.<br /><br />Meanwhile, you can catch the remaining 99% of the composition <a href="http://longplayer.org/listen/longplayer.m3u">here</a>.Tony Fiskhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14578160528746657971noreply@blogger.com0