Randomised

Let us.. Let us.. = Lettuce! Lettuce!

2011-12-02T13:44:00.003+11:00

or, Not Bloody AGW Again!?

Debating climate change may be considered a futile cause by many. I find that, so long as you're addressing the fourth wall (ie the 'open minded' audience: Yes! You! At the back!) rather than the proponent (who is as unlikely to be persuaded of your argument as you are of theirs), then you might find you can at least put a point down.

Of late, I have been making use of a useful set of one-liner retorts to the most common arguments, referring to them as the 'Romm Swat', for Joe Romm of Climate Progress, who has them listed here. They're extensive. They're backed up. They were recently knocked back by this comment:

Marcus:

I have no idea what the 'Romm swat' is. You seem to be referring to the discredited Skeptical Science catechism.
You may be interested in some more details on the collection of errors.

http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/03/john-cook-skeptical-science.html

First of all, Marcus is quite right to wonder what a 'Romm swat' is (although I did give a link...). The original list of rebuttals was created and is maintained by John Cook, who maintains the Skeptical Science website. While he annotates them with his own clarifications, Romm makes it quite clear who the original source is. So, mea culpa: the confusion is down to me.

Second, Marcus' comment is in response to one in which I said the arguments I was 'swatting' seemed to be trotted out again and again, without regard for whether or not they were still valid. Marcus was good enough to provide a link to a post by one Lubos Motl, responding to each of Cook's 'catechisms', as Marcus describes them.

Strike two! Fair call!

Third, the comments had closed by the time I had read Marcus' response, so I felt obliged to address it, in depth, here.

Because that's about as much ground as I'm willing to yield.

So, let us check out what Motl says about Cook's rebuttals... Oh, dear!

I recently observed that I found statements that began with 'let us...' often ended with euphemisms for '...lead you down the garden path.'. I suppose this is the intention of every polemicist: to persuade. I suppose I'm no different in this, but at least I try only to point out where I think the garden path is and where it might go. I have no wish to put a ring through your nose. That is called 'framing'.

Motl's premise begins with 'So let us look at his [Cook's] points and [Motl's] counter-points.'

Okayy! Forewarned of the possibility of fairies ahead, I proceeded cautiously.

First of all, it is to be noted that Motl modestly declined to post a photo of John Cook, as it might invite a negative reaction. It *is* a little in your face, to the point of appearing doctored! Such is the sorry state of public AGW debates, that I initially suspected a bit of weak satire. It appears not, as a favourable review of Sceptical Science by Andrew Revkin uses the same image. A more composed image is now available (see above).

Now, getting to the crux, and looking through the first of the 104 points that Motl addresses (Cook now has 173 listed.):

Argument 1. "It's the sun"

Cook: "In the last 35 years of global warming, sun and climate have been going in opposite directions"

Romm adds: "In the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate have been going in opposite directions."

Motl: "I agree with Richard Lindzen [source of argument] that it's silly to try to find "one reason behind all climate change", because the climate is pretty complex and clearly has lots of drivers, and this applies to the opinion that "everything is in the Sun", too. Cook shows that the solar irradiance is too small and largely uncorrelated to the observed changes of temperatures. I agree with that: a typical 0.1% change of the output is enough for a 0.025% change of the temperature in Kelvins which is less than 0.1 °C and unlikely to matter much. But I find it embarrassing for a student of solar physics such as himself to be so narrow-minded. The Sun influences the Earth's atmosphere not only directly by the output but also indirectly, by its magnetic field and its impact on the cosmic rays (via solar wind etc.) and other things. He has completely ignored all these things. Of course, I am actually not certain that these effects are very important for the climate but the evidence - including peer-reviewed articles - is as diverse as the evidence supporting CO2 as an important driver."

my take: Motl seems to be agreeing, although is doing so via Lindzen, and is suggesting that Cook is being 'narrow minded' in not looking at other solar influences (actually, those are covered extensively in the backing material and commentary)
Whatever, possible ad homs aside, this point seems to be ceded by Motl.

Argument 2. "Climate's changed before"

Cook: "Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant forcing."

Romm adds: "Natural climate change in the past proves that climate is sensitive to an energy imbalance. If the planet accumulates heat, global temperatures will go up. Currently, CO2 is imposing an energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Past climate change actually provides evidence for our climate’s sensitivity to CO2."

Motl: "Cook says that the previous history of the climate shows that the climate is sensitive to imbalances. Indeed, it is and it has always been. And he says that the past history provides evidence for sensitivity to CO2. Well, it virtually doesn't. CO2, much like other effects, adds imbalances and pushes the temperature around. But there exists no way to disentangle CO2 from many other effects or argue that it has become the most important driver. So the climate continues to change in the same way as it did in the past, by the typical changes per year, decade, and century, and Cook has offered no evidence whatsoever that something has changed about the very fact that the climate is changing."

My take: Where does Cook say that 'past history provides evidence for sensitivity to CO2'? He doesn't (although Romm is happy to). Nor is it mentioned in the expanded version. Motl has set up a straw man argument.
Foul.

Argument 3. "There is no consensus"

Cook: "97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming."

Romm adds: "That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 19 countries plus many scientific organizations that study climate science. More specifically, around 95% of active climate researchers actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position."

Motl: "This counter-point #3 is clearly obsolete: Cook tries to argue that 97% climate scientists endorse something - it sounds like a TV commercial. Most of his graphs are obsolete, too - the current support for various AGW-related statements is close to 1/2 of the figures he copied in an "optimistic" moment for his favorite political movement. The reality is that most scientists disagree with the basic tenets of the AGW orthodoxy - and even people like Phil Jones now agree that nothing unprecedented is going on with the climate right now (including no statistically significant warming in 15 years, and the existence of a medieval warm period), while Kevin Trenberth has agreed that the climate hasn't warmed and the popular models are inconsistent with this fact - what a travesty. There still exist large bodies of climate scientists who prefer to promote the panic - because they've been hired to do so or because it results from their political biases (which are mostly leftist in the Academia). The funding for climate science has increased 10-fold in the last 10-20 years - purely because of the possible threat - which means that 90% of the people (or 90% of the funding) is working on proofs of this pre-determined conclusion. At any rate, these discussions provide us with no evidence for the actual science - they're just about an attempt of the largely political movements to intimidate the scientists in the very same way in which Nazis wanted to intimidate the "Jewish science" by the consensus of the "Aryan scientists". Einstein would tell them that it's enough to find one scientist to prove Einstein wrong."

My take: Motl does not clarify what he means by 'clearly obsolete' and how he can claim it. Indeed, he does not attempt to validate any of the claims made here. The expanded version of Cook's point starts with 'Science achieves a consensus when scientists stop arguing.'. It has been stated elsewhere that scientists aren't just sceptics, they're trained sceptics. The debate we're seeing now isn't scientist vs scientist. It's entrenched interest vs. reality. It has also been pointed out that hungry PhD students would be looking to make a killing to topple dominant theories such as AGW if they were showing signs of dodginess. Where are they all?

Motl does go on to argue 101 points in total. But, since he too pauses for a commercial ad break at this point, it seems a good place for me to stop as well.

In keeping with earlier remarks about 'Let us...', you now know where the garden path is. Follow the remaining 98 flagstones if you will. I said earlier that I would not put a ring through your nose and lead you down it. Form your own opinion. I will only note that, unlike Cook, Motl offers his own views only, without any backing material.

Cook's points are intended as simple rebuttals, As such, they require regular maintenance lest they *do* become simplistic 'catechisms', as Marcus puts them. Motl's post provided an opportunity to do so, even if I found his arguments to be not in the least bit persuasive. I consider Cook's rebuttals to be unscathed and I will continue to use them (although, perhaps, with a more accurate accreditation!)

Message in a Bottle

2011-11-02T13:43:00.003+11:00

This is prompted by a call from Getup to contribute a message for a time capsule. Here is my contribution:

Greetings, from 2011,

Part of the invitation to write this message included, in part, a request to 'show future generations you cared enough to speak up in an era when fear and cowardice almost won the day? '

Well, speaking from the time, it does not appear to be *quite* that dramatic! Nevertheless, I think I can time the moment I became more engaged with what was going on around me to that crisp, clear, autumn day in New York, when a horribly beautiful sargasso plume of flame and smoke blossomed from the side of the World Trade Centre. In fact, the local time was about 10:45pm, and I had just gone to bed, missing the first confused reports coming in the late News by a matter of minutes. I awoke the next morning thinking that whoever was talking on the radio about the 'greatest day of infamy since Pearl Harbor' was laying it on a bit thick... until the early estimates of over ten thousand casualties was mentioned.

And reports of a crash in a field, as passengers of flight 93 tried to wrest control back again.

Thankfully, these estimates were halved over time, but I would think that '9/11' still resonates after fifty years... it has certainly defined the political landscape of the last ten.

As it happened, my daughter was conceived at about this time. As the details of what Al Qaida stood for coalesced, I felt it behooved me to ensure that she would not have to suffer at the hands of such a misogynistic mindset.

There was an initial outpouring of worldwide support and commiseration. It could have been handled so much differently! Without the panic. Without a protracted and ruinous occupation of a country which had no links to Al Qaida (Hussein preferring to brew his own brand of international nastiness). America the Nation could have been shown at its most enlightened.

Unfortunately, it became the Age of Spin and Denial.

The US government of the time had its own agenda, which it managed to fuse into the ongoing crisis. There are various accounts of how big that agenda was, ranging from simple vengeance, to opportunistic racketeering up to acts of shadow puppetry on behalf of another government.

The War on Terror! Huh! For all that they were diligent and meant well, I think that the renewed flight searches by airport security did more to instil a sense of terror and helplessness in the populace than a dozen blown up passenger flights ever could!

In the midst of all this, off the coast of Australia, a Norwegian cargo vessel was left stuck in limbo, carrying a huddle of refugees it was now popular to vilify as potential terrorists. Such people were, so we were being told, not above throwing their own children into the water to force authorities to take them in.

Except, they weren't, according to the coastguard officers and crew who were on the scene.

This message is prompted by the pending passage of the 'Clean Energy Bill' which is, in turn, prompted by a concern about what the CO2 levels were doing. For much of the past ten years, governments have been oblivious, indeed, actively censorious, of this threat. I am afraid that this is what you reap.

I find it ironic that two arrogant governments of recent times were shown to be lacking by acts of climate.

Cyclone Tracy's destruction of Darwin in 1974, and Hurricane Katrina's 2005 impact on New Orleans and the Louisiana coastline as a whole showed, in their lax handling of the aftermath, that the governments of the day were made of straw. Those 'extreme weather' events may not have bought the edifices tumbling down, but they set the stage.

Whitlam and Bush may have shared an overweaning arrogance and hubris, but I think that Whitlam would, at least, have been applying his overweaning arrogance to tackling a problem such as climate change.

For Bush, as intricately as he was bound into the oils and fossil fuel industries, it took an obscure PNG spokesman at a 2007 Bali summit to ask 'If you don't want to lead, then get out of the way'

Bush may have gone, but his backers remain, and seem intent on maintaining the status quo. Governments may have been moved, reluctantly, from dismissal, to denial, to grudging acceptance, but they have remained paralysed by indecision, and by a lack of resources in the wake of the crash of 2008. This inaction, even after changes in governments, has led to much frustration, as is evident in the umbrella 'occupy' movements that have been springing up in the last month. However comforting the status quo may be, change is afoot (as it happens, I just started writing a story that attempts to weave all this together. If it ever makes it to print, and is still in publication, I hope you enjoy it, as outdated as it will probably appear to you!) .

Of course, you will have your own perception of the events of the last decade, and it is pointless for me to speculate on whether what I say can be dismissed as paranoid ramblings, or a rueful shake and a muttered 'you didn't know half of it!' (It is possible that I will still be alive, and join in!)

At the time of writing this, we 'know' (as well as any scientific theory can know) that human activity has been causing undue warming of the Earth, and that this will have profound consequences (you are quite possibly experiencing them as you read this) How profound these changes will be is still a matter of debate. That they *will* have profound changes within a generation has only become evident in the last 5-6 years. For that reason alone it is, perhaps, unsurprising that so much resistance to the idea has been encountered.

It is a hope that the Clean Energy Bill will precipitate a rush to develop renewable energy sources and this will show the way forward internationally! It is a hope that this action will mitigate what you experience.

But.

Governments remain paralysed by lobby groups. We may have to rely on individual efforts to remind us of our basic humanity. In telling my story on the War on Terror, I alluded to a few such examples. We are only just beginning to realise that Humanity has been de facto custodian of the planet for a lo-o-ong time. We are still not very good at it. But we're learning.

So, what of me? Having made a commitment to making a better less troubled world for my child, I have found that raising that child took up more of my time than saving the world. I suppose this is as it should be, and I think it has paid off (as with a lot of such things, you will be a better judge...!).

My contributions to getting a sane policy to tackling climate change on the table have been very modest and peripheral. I have read, observed, and generally borne witness. I write of what I see. I have occasionally offered words of advice, support, and solace to people far more active in trying to bring about a better world than I have been.

Even that little would have been impossible without the advent of the improved online interaction made possible by what is now known as Web 2.0. It allowed me to start blogging, to start reaching out and reading of other people's concerns and hopes.

You will be opening and reading this some forty years after I have written it. My concerns for you are that you live in a world which is beginning to show the scars of a profligate civilisation. My hope is that you see a way forward from wherever you are; that we acted in time.

A little while ago I wrote: "Bridges start out as a means of establishing links that weren't there before. Bridges are important. They need to be built. They need to be maintained.".

I think holds true in time as well as space (do you still watch Dr. Who?). It occurs to me, on this rather cold November day in 2011, that someone writing this forty years in the past would have done so with a very real concern that nobody would ever have read it; that the capsule would have been destroyed, or lie amid an ashen, barren landscape.

We're still here, so we must be doing something right!

#OccupyTwitter?

2011-10-26T16:59:00.009+11:00

I had hoped to flex my newly awakened blogging skills with something light.

Instead we have the sight of police chucking tear gas into protestors at #occupyoakland.

That is, of course, the hashtag used to follow the news with twitter (it seems that more traditional media sources, acting on police advice, went home early)

Oh, that sounds like a conspiracy. Well, I suppose it is, and I'm as much of a sucker for the outlandish theory as the next man.

I also possess a certain forensic streak as well and I became a little puzzled with another 'conspiracy'; that none of the 'occupy' tags were trending. This has been discussed for a while back and forth, with no clear conclusion being reached.

I went looking.

First off, I tried simply counting the number of tweets associated with #ows and the death of Steve Jobs (#ThanksSteve was very prominent at the time) They seemed to be appearing at comparable rates. However, Twitter's trending algorithm isn't just a question of total tweets; it tries to show people what's hot and what isn't. So, there may be some reason why ows wasn't trending? Possibly it had saturated.

It turns out that there a number of sites that plot trends for a given set of tweets over time. Most are geared to individuals trying to find out how they're doing.

There is one, however, allows you to select hashtags. That is Trendistic. Using it to compare #ows with #ThanksSteve shows that the latter was a clear spike, while 'ows' was an ongoing grumble (with spikes). OK, so maybe 'ows' doesn't trend, but it's persistent.

Then came news of tear gas in downtown Oakland...

Again, no 'OccupyOakland' appeared in the trending list. However, what *was* appearing was 'Oakland PD' and 'OPD' (Oakland Police Department?)

What is the Oakland PD doing that doesn't involve OccupyOakland?

Going back to Trendistic now revealed something *very* interesting.

Here's a plot of that trending 'Occupy PD':

Occupy PD Trending... at 0.18%.

There's a respectable spike there. But have a look at the column on the right. Do you see 'OccupyOakland' displayed at the top? I do (I also see ows, shown less prominently)

So, here's the trend for 'OccupyOakland' as the dawn breaks over the Bay Area.

OccupyOakland Not Trending... at 0.81%.

Whoa! That is a spike that is over 5 times the size as 'Oakland PD'

This seems like a case of 'same data, different conclusions'.

Twitter has been a mainstay of a lot of popular movements, and it seems churlish, even ungrateful, to point this out.

But, dear @Twitter, I think you need to respond to this, and either fix your algorithms, or list the tags you are 'demoting' as well as 'promoting'.

Update: Twitter did recently point to a fairly detailed account of how tags trend here. As I said earlier, this may account for #ows, but #OccupyOakland fits the profile, and Trendistic lists it!

Hello Blogger My Old Friend

2011-10-21T14:05:00.003+11:00

Or... Why I Write
If this is a story then, in the traditional sense, it is an incomplete one. It certainly has a beginning, and a developing structure that leads to a middle. I have yet to think of an ending, though.

Why I Started
I started writing this blog about 7(!) years ago. I did so as a form of escape. I felt isolated, both socially and professionally and, while it wasn't a full-blown depression, I was feeling pretty blue.

It worked! Getting things down on paper/viewable media helped expunge a few inner demons. It wasn't a case of physically pinning writhing, impish homunculi to a web page; I don't think you'll see many examples of specific psycho-analysis going on. What did happen was that I felt a growing sense of empowerment. I could write down thoughts/ideas and come back later to re-read them and think... well think anything from 'What *was* I thinking!?' to 'What was I *taking*!?'.

In summary, it allowed me to step back and say 'OK, never mind if nobody is interested in what I say, never mind if an editor hasn't ripped it to shreds and put it back together in a sensible and coherent manner, I can still write some pretty cool stuff.'

Why I Didn't Start Earlier
Seems this realisation was important to me. While I did pretty well at school in most subjects, English wasn't my strongest. In fact, I was pretty atrocious at it. I couldn't see the point in reading books and discoursing floridly about motivations and symbolism. Oh, I enjoyed *reading* books (mainly sf of which more shortly), and did so avidly. Unfortunately, what was taught seemed like a lesson in how to stick pins in kittens. My attitude led a somewhat rebellious streak coming out, and the result was predictable: I failed.

Well, well! There is now an impish homunculus pinned to this web page! In retrospect, I do not blame the system that screwed me. I could have identified what I wanted to get out of the subject, worked on that, learned to play the game with the rest, and got through. The fault in not doing so is entirely mine.

I do feel, however, that I would have done better if a better distinction had been made in the two English streams. The bane of my school existence was titled 'English Expression'. This should have concentrated on 'how to communicate... using English'. Unfortunately, from my introverted, geeky perspective, it was taught in a style more in keeping with its more advanced stream 'English Literature'. Yes! By all means, discuss the clever structures, symbolisms and backgrounds in the latter. There, it may be assumed that you know the basics of the language! Indeed, my grasp of grammar and style wasn't really the issue. English wasn't the problem, it was the *expression*! I just couldn't get my thoughts down on paper fast enough, and became fixated on the prospect of having to write four essays in three hours. I had no thoughts to express! Rather, I was trying too hard: overcompensating, and trying to put down deep and meaningful insights that weren't really to be found in the subject matter.

Even so, mea culpa. Now, moving on...

What I Wrote
Where was I? Oh yes, the discovery that
a) I *could* actually get my thoughts on paper (courtesy of a bit of remedial work by a long-suffering post-graduate supervisor) and
b) though I might say so myself, what I wrote had some pretty interesting points (based on a subsequent reading) Yes, I know this is entirely subjective. Still, a little ego is useful as a catalyst, if nothing else.

Now, bear in mind, this blog was started back in 2003. The interactive online tools made possible by what is called 'Web 2.0' were only becoming mainstream. Not all that many people had taken them up. Then again, Rumsfeld had attempted to 'shock and awe' recalcitrant Iraqis with the overwhelming military might of America, Bush was smugly declaring 'Mission Accomplished' from the decks of an aicraft carrier, and a chap called 'Salam Pax' was blogging to tell the world that the truth was a little more complicated than that.

Pax inspired me to get on the blogging band wagon. I initially did so from the perspective of having a 'dear diary' to hand.

I wrote of geeky things: stuff that occurred to me as they did.

I wrote of my growing outrage to the utterly counter-productive manner in which the 'War on Terror' was being waged.

I wrote what I thought.

Of course, what blogging also allows is *interaction*: not only can you see what other people have written, you can *comment* on it! Not that anyone has, or is likely to, comment extensively here. I'm fine with that, this is a sounding board for me. On the other hand, I began to comment extensively elsewhere. Comments begat responses. Conversations formed, and communities were established.

Elsewhere.

What I Wrote Next
The number of posts I made to this blog started to diminish. I suppose this is the fate of a lot of toys. Initial wild enthusiasm gives way to fond familiarity, gives way to other things. It wasn't that I gave up blogging entirely. I have started a couple of additional blogs (which you can see in my pofile):

Casting Light: a brief attempt to categorise what would be needed for a trustworthy online voting system
Adventures in Bad Coding: a slightly tongue in cheek, and self-mocking narrative on what problems/disasters/solutions I have encountered while earning a crust as a software developer.
The Chips Are Down: a fictional account of my experiences in 2019 as the scenarios of the MMORPG 'Superstruct' unfolded.

Why I (Nearly) Stopped Writing
I discovered the blog's bigger, studious cousin: the wiki

I discovered the blog's little, excitable sister: twitter

In short, my online presence dispersed. I slept.

My circumstances changed as well. I was out of work for a large part of 2009. While this could have been a time to expand on my thoughts online, it is actually quite stressful to be doing nothing, ad I clammed up. The few postings I have then are fairly bitter grumps about how useless employment agencies were. The job I then took chewed up a lot of spare time, and wasn't a particularly inspiring job either.

Blogs take time to write. For all that I have the confidence to write now, it still doesn't flow quickly. Ideas need to be organised and made coherent (believe me, this post would be anything but coherent if it were posted as written down!)

Tweets, however... Pascal's excuse for writing a long letter is automatically excised by the 140 character limit. Write your thought, and be done!

I emitted my first faint 'cheep' last December, something about my excellent timing in choosing to ride an errand in a thunderstorm. As it turned out, I was just in time to be deluged by the wikileaks cables controversy. It was a heady time. Oh, I howled my indignation at the absurdity of our so-called leaders with the best of them! I found myself egging on the exploits of 'anonymous' with the rest of the flock.

It also occurred to me, in reading some of the cable's contents, that the main target of wikileak's ire should not necessarily be the conduct of the US diplomatic corps. The real news was not the (rather mundane) contents so much as the scandalised over-reaction to having them revealed. It smacked of fear, but of what?

Similarly, in recent weeks the 'occupy ...' protests have been occupying time that should perhaps better be spent in getting a job and doing jobs around the house (and, while messages of support may count, being... productive)

Why I Write Now
Now, however, I have recently received a tweet from Neil Gaiman to use and answer the tag #whyIwrite in celebration of the National Day on Writing (never mind that I'm international). I find, in responding to this simple question, that it involves a *lot* more than a simple 140 characters can encompass. I have taken a voluntary redundancy from that drear job mentioned above, and find I now have time go over the reasons why I write. I doing so, and in looking back on what I have written, I re-discover reasons why I should keep on writing.

First, I have as a mascot, a mongoose. It's inversion is representative of the fact that I come from downunder. It's a mongoose because the motto ascribed to that clan by Kipling is 'run and find out'. An early reason for my writing was to find ideas, and link them together.

This is not a new concept. Indeed, pointing out ideas is the prime motivation for communication, be it English or hypertext.

Going back, I pause by the tales I spun while playing Superstruct. From the perspective of another man, three years older, I find some of them frankly astonishing.

I wrote of 'Rook Parliaments', allowing refugees to maintain a cohesive sense of self-governing community.

I wrote of 'surfing the superthreat cascade' by complementarianism: piling on initiatives that caused the various threats to counter rather than augment each other in bringing on extinction.

I wrote applications to better display the play between other people in the game (they worked too, although the back-end database is no longer available)

There is a thread there, one that is captured by a chap called Ethan Zuckerman. He writes of 'homophily', the love of sameness that discourages us from seeking out other perspectives. He talks of the growing need for 'xenophily'; of bridging the gaps between peoples and, as he put it, to tell stories. He ended with a plea for help in promoting this; a plea I now regret to say I never answered.

Why I Will Keep Writing
I started by saying I haven't thought of an ending to this story of why I write. The act is, of course, intricately bound up with why I read.

Why I read is to learn; and to see things differently. Why I write is so that someone, somewhere, may also come to see things differently.

Architectual design patterns (the software ones, at least) speak of bridges as a means of linking divergent behaviour together without invoking a combinatorial explosion. Didn't get that? Hmm! Well, never mind! In reality, bridges start out as a means of establishing links that weren't there before.

Bridges are important. They need to be built. They need to be maintained.

As it happens, in the last week, a few articles have caught my eye:

A coverage of 'absurd' inventions that have gone on to become commonplace anyway. Included in the list is the 'Universal Translator'. A useful tool, although I think Zuckerman's needs are deeper.
A graphical description of how about 100 companies effectively control the world's economy. David Brin's excited about this, for a number of reasons I'll leave him to explain here. The occupy movement needs to take note as well
A tweet from Alex Steffen about how living trees have been converted into bridges. Think of infrastructure, and of bio-mimicry. Think *AWESOME*

So, on a bridge, two strangers met, and strangers were no more.

And beyond the bridge? What then? The road goes on...

Review: Reality Is Broken

2011-03-24T00:25:00.006+11:00

So games can save the world, eh?

The notion sounds hokey and ridiculous and, while I have been involved with some of Jane McGonigal's online initiatives, I was a bit sceptical about how this book would read.

However, a number of people whose opinions I respect, have been enthusiastically promoting this book, and so I placed an order and here we are.

I needn't have worried. In fact Jane proves herself to be a more than able communicator of this extraordinary thesis.

Yes, reality is broken. You may not realise it, but you know it from the moment you face another grey Monday morning to the indeterminate period when you are drawn by the prospect of Friday evening. Yes, games can fix that reality. Games are already what makes that reality bearable as it is. Going to work by public transport? Look around you. Note the number of people looking at their mobile devices.

Escape!

It's nothing new. Herodotus gives an account of how the ancient Lydians set aside alternate days for dice games in order to take their minds off a devastating famine.

Moving to the present day, McGonigal cites the astounding number of man hours that people invest in playing 'Worlds of Warcraft' alone, and wonders how all this creative activity could be harnessed to actually solve the real-life problems that lead to this escapist behaviour.

What follows next is an investigation of what makes for a good game (and not just computer games). McGonigal draws on her own experiences of designing and playing games to illustrate features that make a game that is engaging.

The book moves from traditional shoot 'em ups, through to puzzles. From solitaire to MMORPG. We are introduced to the buzz of an epic win (and the engaging thrills of 'epic fails' as well!) . All the while, the objective is maintained, until we are introduced to games that actively try to solve a real world problem.

The style is engaging and, while the pace may lag a little when describing the mechanisms of individual games the reader may not be familiar with, the examples demonstrate a point that is woven into the overall theme.

And what of the Lydians? What happened to them? I recommend you read the book and find out!

The Cult of Xocolatl

2011-02-05T14:54:00.005+11:00

NB: This whimsical tale was inspired by the little game of 'Social Chocolate' that Jane McGonigal and friends have put up. They should not be blamed for what follows:

The Cult of Xocolatl

The citizens bustled about their town, seeking out and avoiding in turn whichever of their fellows they encountered. As they went about their businesses, none were aware that a predatory meme had recently come to lay in ambush; waiting in frozen anticipation for the right moment.

There! One individual, coming closer, closer...

Insight!

⊗

Blinding! Obvious! Undeniable! The touched forgot all else but the rapturous indoctrination of:

⊗...! ⊗...!

All around, most were oblivious to what had occurred. Nevertheless, in time, others approached the stilled prophet. Reaching out, they received, in turn, a share of the vision that had been granted to the eXalted One, who came to be known as the 'Column of Light', a conduit of vision:

'Col'.

However, the newly adoring saw, not the vision, but the one who had received it. So, the refrain they added changed the message:

⊗-Col! ⊗-Col!

The growing cluster of these acolytes did not escape notice. Others drew close. The eXalted One was surrounded by the priesthood now, and commoners felt only what they passed on: not the vision, even the witness to a vision, but the news of the witness. Even so, many were encouraged by the prospect of A Tiny Light of glowing comfort in what was, it came to them, a grey despairing existence. They pressed in, to heed the words of the message.

Others shrugged indifferently.

Still others sought to dissuade their companions from something best not associated with. Yet always, slowly, inexorably, the congregation grew; raising voices in a self-evident hymn of rapture:

⊗-Col-ATL! ⊗-Col-ATL!

And so the meme fed, and there was bliss!

To make your very own 'Cult of Xocolatl'

1. Go to the Social Chocolate website
2. place your mouse cursor anywhere on the playing area
3. go and have a cup of hot cocoa, and see what happens!

NB: this is quite contrary to the spirit of the game but it's interesting to see how many of the goals are fulfilled by doing effectively nothing. As Steve Jackson once said, it always pays to playtest the dumb strategies!

Monument Ad Hominem

2011-01-20T14:49:00.003+11:00

It matters not what speakers do,
so much as what they say.
And what thee make of their fine words;
where with them would'st thou stray?

Shal't set thy sails to see where they might
blow thy mind's fleet schooner?
Or substitute their shining wit,
with monument to Spooner!?

I'm Julian!

2010-12-05T00:09:00.002+11:00

Reading about the recent games of whack-a-rat various folk have been playing with Wikileaks, I have an irrational desire to do a Tony Curtis and leap to my feet shouting "*I'm Spartacus!*".

Irrational because the Romans dealt with that particular display of mass defiance with brutal efficiency.

Still, the populace seem particularly dense when it comes to learning official lessons about championing the underdog. I think it's the satisfaction gained from tearing the mask from a hypocrite's face and holding a mirror up to it while saying "This is the real you. Deny it if you can!"

Water: It Isn't Just Another Third World Problem

2010-10-16T14:00:00.002+11:00

I am taking the 20 minute trudge to work from Flinders Street station, in the pouring rain. Walking along Southbank, there is little shelter and the brisk southerlies make a mockery of any that an umbrella might provide. Naturally, I am getting soaked.

Welcome to Melbourne's October! Normally, we're getting increasingly warm, sunny spells. Instead, it's hovering around the low teens with hail and snow in the surrounding hills. It is, one might say philosophically, good growing weather.

It's just as well we are getting this wintry, wet blast because the last 12 years has given South Eastern Australia anything but good growing weather.

I understand that Melbourne has, for a city of its size, remarkably good water catchments. When full, they provide a reserve of about 5 years supply.

We've needed it! This time last year we were at about 25% capacity, and there have been periods recently when the levels have dropped by 20% in a year. Consider the prospect of a modern city of ~3-4 million people with no water supply. You don't just truck those sorts of quantities in from the neighbouring districts; especially when the neighbours are, if anything, even worse off. Consider the prospect of an catchment area comparable to the Mississippi running dry. That was the Murray-Darling basin a couple of years ago. Low water levels in these areas may be more sinister than just a few crazy-paved billabongs either. There is a sulphur-bearing soil type ('Coode Island silt') which has the unpleasant habit of generating sulphuric acid when exposed to air. It can administer the coup de grace to an already reeling river ecosystem.

Things turn, and recent rain patterns have been somewhat more generous. Melbourne's water catchments have recovered to 48% (for the first time in four years), a bumper crop is hoped for (by locusts, as well as people). The Murray has reached the sea for the first time in ten years and the Coorong may yet be resuscitated. Nevertheless, climate modelling suggests that SE Australia will become increasingly more dry and arid as global warming proceeds. Even with the rains, we have only just returned to the point where, four years ago, I predicted that Melbourne was going to be running dry in ten years. What we have is a reprieve.

Despite good rainfalls this winter, water levels have only just recovered from the calamituous dry spell of 2006

Lessons are things that don't kill you. So, what have we learnt?

I think it depends on where you look. At a government level, the reaction has been ill-considered and clumsy. The Federal government seeks to take control of the Murray-Darling water allocation system for irrigators and is currently trying to market a 30-40% reduction in allocations. This is so that the environment has something to be getting on with. It is a necessary restraint but one which is going to cause unnecessary angst if applied immediately. Naturally, there is resistance to such a dramatic cut. The State response has been no less eye-rolling. Here the emphasis has been on trying to ensure Melbourne's supply via a pipeline from the Goulburn and a nice, big, expensive, ugly desalination plant. A suggestion that recycling from storm water and sewage was firmly vetoed becuse it was thought that the public would rebel. Ironically, nobody I know has ever been too concerned about recycled water, but most have been scathing about the other two projects. Maybe I don't move in sufficiently 'political' circles. They have, at least, moved from issuing vague decrees about restriction levels to monitoring water usage per person and putting a preferred limit on it (155 litres/day). Mostly, it's being stuck to.

At a personal level, people are showering quicker, buying water storage tanks, and using grey water on the garden. Of these little steps, buying water efficient washing machines is probably the biggest improvement one can make. Whatever, these little adjustments *are* making a difference, as can be seen from the rate at which water has been used in 1996 and 2010.

Getting water-wise: consumption at the start of 1997 vs 2010.

The main lesson learnt, though, is not one that comes easily to people sheltered from the worst environmental extremes by a first-world lifestyle.

It is this: water can no longer be taken for granted.

(Part of Blog Action Day)

Election Day is World Overshoot Day

2010-08-17T23:13:00.002+10:00

World Overshoot Day is the day when when human demand on nature surpasses what nature can renewably supply in a year. It has been falling progressively earlier for the last thirty years.

In 2010, by the Global Footprint Network's calculations, that day happens to fall on August 21.

This is the same day as the Australian federal election.

Political Tweets

2010-08-06T23:20:00.003+10:00

"Politics is the art of the possible"
-Otto Von Bismark

This being the case, shouldn't those who would practise the art of the possible first find out what *is* possible?

"Politics is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable."
- John Kenneth Galbraith

(or, in the current Australian situation: a choice between the unacceptable and the unthinkable)

"Cynicism is obedience"
"Optimism is a political act"
- Alex Steffen

Pessimism is the lot of the flock. The cynical sheepdogs will round you up in due course.

"Pig's arse they will!"
- Moi

Quo Vadis, Australia?

2010-07-31T09:13:00.003+10:00

This election is shaping up to be one of the most contentious in recent memory.

On the left: a Labor government which appears to have gone missing in action: voted in with a mandate which it has refused to pursue. Instead, doggedly pursuing agendas like internet filters which *nobody* wants. Springing mining taxes without warning and then wondering what the fuss is about. Uninspiring.

On the right: a formerly Liberal opposition which features a dogmatic and uncharismatic leader who openly embraces the priciples the last government was voted out on. Who ousted the former leader over emissions and tradings and who has been quoted as saying climate change is 'a load of crap' (like a pile of brown coal briquettes, perhaps?) Unthinkable.

In the middle, a bunch of greens (in more ways than one, it might be argued. But, in this company, they seem the sanest of the lot). Unpromising.

Poll after poll is showing a majority of people and industries want action on emissions: be it carbon taxes or whatever (what they really want is certainty, so they can get on with life. Wouldn't that be nice?)

How then, does this point to a Liberal victory? Possibly climate isn't the major factor in most people's decision making (A clean and stable environment strikes me as being fairly basic to the pyramid of Marslowe's heirarchy of needs. But then, I'm not everybody else)

Looking at the mess, I have a horrible sense of deja vu: Victoria in the early nineties was a financial basket case. Its government had proven itself unfit to govern and, waiting on the sidelines, there was an opposition that made no attempt to hide its carnivorous aspirations ("we won't announce our policies: they will confuse the electorate"). I know how that story goes!

Alex Steffen has said that cynicism is obedience to the status quo, and that optimism is a political act.

So here's my take on political optimism:

- I will vote green, with Labor prefs.

- I will specifically *not* vote for Senator Conroy. (Message to Canberra: there is a message here)

- I will get on with doing things like supporting the Beyond Zero Emissions plan (which doesn't even have to mention AGW, and has a prayer of being pitchable to either party)

- I will not be cowed by the craven bullying of the fossil fool sneer squad.

Heed The Cow!

2010-04-23T23:17:00.004+10:00

As it appears likely that my current place of employment will be shifting to the Melbourne Docklands at year's end, I thought it appropriate to check the place out.

To the uninitiated the area in question lies just to the west of the Melbourne CBD. It used to be given over to docks, wharfs, railyards and other aspects of civilisation that aren't noted for their sightliness. In the last 5-10 years, however, some bright spark has decided it should go up market with inner city apartments, offices, cafes, giant ferris wheels...

Not a bad idea. Unfortunately, someone forgot to stop and wonder whether people really wanted to live and work in a windswept concrete amusement park.

I recall going for a job interview in Docklands last year. By the time I had walked 15-20 minutes to reach the place I had already decided I didn't want the job. Second impressions have not changed, and were clearly shared by the sculptor of the above welcoming piece.

A washed-up cow pretty much says it all!

LongPlayer: Happy Tenth Anniversary!

2009-12-31T23:59:00.000+11:00

In this age of rush and deadline, it seems bizarre that anyone would have the time to listen to a piece of music that lasts for a thousand years (let alone write it!)

Nevertheless, that is what Jem Finer did. His LongPLayer composition was first played (and is still playing) on midnight on December 31, 1999. It will end (if the world doesn't do it first) on December 31, 2999.

Actually, what this (as well as the Long Now project) seeks to show is that people are able to look a little further ahead than the end of the current financial year.

Meanwhile, you can catch the remaining 99% of the composition here.

Climate Action Day

2009-10-25T23:14:00.005+11:00

A lone face in the crowd.

This is what a small blimp carrying a remote camera over the Alexandra gardens recorded at 1pm on Saturday, October 24.

Several hundred cyclists, having pedalled through Melbourne that morning, form a sign you're going to get to know in the next month or two.

More later, but I can't resist a photo of our lead pantechniton, which appeared to support up to 6 riders.

So, what is 350?

Copenhagen: The Archangel and the Vampire

2009-10-23T23:41:00.004+11:00

There is a lot riding on the upcoming climate conference in Copenhagen. So much so that many commentators are proclaiming it to be our last chance to stop the dominoes of climate change from tipping each over into catastrophe. Even ones such as Worldchanging's Alex Steffen were sounding ominous warnings recently

Entire orders of life may be eliminated in this sixth great extinction event. At the very least, civilisation could be snuffed like a candle left on some drowning pacific atoll.

Apocalyptic stuff!

For certain, the sooner we implement systematic counters to global warming the more damage we can avert. A great opportunity will have been missed if the Copenhagen talks can't agree to substantial action. Of course, a lot of the doom-mongering is just that: a ploy bringing pressure to bear on policy-makers to extract their collective digits by stating that failure is not acceptable.

However, the importance of Copenhagen can be overplayed.

We are about to embark on a journey like no other in the history of humanity. It will be a journey of many, many steps, of which Copenhagen will be only one of the first. We can't afford to stumble on one of them and yet it is nearly certain that we will. To persevere, we will need to learn endurance and be resilient to the calamities that will delay us.

A lot of people are ill-prepared for this journey. They are still in varying stages of denial, disbelief, and possibly despair. Is it helpful to say 'game over' each time we do stumble? This is not the outlook that resilience nurtures.

It prompted me to remember the lyrics to Peter Gabriel's song 'Don't Give Up' (which strike me as apt, even if they deal with more mundane issues like chronic unemployment in the eighties)

"no fight left or so it seems
I am a man whose dreams have all deserted"

A sombre tone, and the speaker is, indeed, close to suicide. However, there is a second voice providing support and encouragement. The conclusion, while gloomy, at least acknowedges the possibility of hope.

don't give up...
don't give up...
don't give up.

To emphasise the message, consider the alternative.

The vampire of my title features in the movie Nosferatu. Seeking his beloved, he has come to the city, trailing plague in his wake. As the disease spreads remorselessly, all hope and social order breaks down. The survivors carouse in drunken debauchery in the town square while they wait for death to claim them.

Well, they might die happy but it is a truly chilling spectacle, and hardly an alternative to anything!

Don't give up!

Blog Action Day: What Will You Do The Morning After?

2009-10-16T00:16:00.008+11:00

The environment trembles. Copenhagen looms as our last best hope, and it all seems so much effort.

What to do? What to do?
Blog about it!

Well, it's a start, I suppose.

So what should I blog about? Anything! It's all about getting a critical mass, isn't it? A message in the media which says:

Hey! There are people who actually care about what comes after Copenhagen!

Yes, that will achieve something... for 24 hours or so.

Then what? The carbon rust will still be inexorably seeping into the atmosphere and oceans long after Oct. 15.

As an individual, there is very little you can do in the way of lifestyle changes that will 'save the planet' (ie to offset enough carbon production to slow the effects of global warming) Any effective change will have to systemic and (sigh) possibly quite disruptive.

The best things you can do as an individual are:

1. Vote. Vote for parties who you think have the best grasp of the issue, and appear willing to bring about systemic changes.

2. Change your lifestyle anyway. No it won't change anything directly. It will set an example to yourself and to others that 'insuperable' barriers aren't always what they seem.

I am not going to try and change the world on Blog Action Day. Others do it far better and systematically. (You can see a few of them list in the blog roll)

What I am going to do is blog about it tomorrow

... and tomorrow

... and tomorrow

On The Value Added by Middle Folk

2009-05-18T17:31:00.005+10:00

It is said that half of advertising is a waste. The problem is deciding which half.

With that in mind, I have compiled a little list of statistics of my job applications to date.

Over the last six months, I have applied for 57 jobs. 30 were advertised through agencies, while 27 were from the company directly.

Of the agency applications, 16 (53%) were acknowledged (ie didn't just vanish into the void) whereas 15 (56%) were acknowledged by companies.

Of the agency applications that were acknowledged, 2 (12.5%) led to further contact. None led to a proper interview.

Of the company applications that were acknowledged, 8 (53%) led to further contact. 5 (30%) led to a proper interview.

Now, I should add that none have actually led to a job offer. Nevertheless, I have to wonder: which half is a waste of time?

Locked Out

2009-05-11T13:23:00.004+10:00

The popular employment-oriented social website LinkedIn seems to have a policy of not working with Linux based users. (Ubuntu mainly, although other users have reported difficultes)

I find that any search or edit request causes a freeze. What's been your experience?

More details are provided by a few industrious burrowers here

Update: a solution has been posted. Type in the following command:
sudo ifconfig eth0 mtu 1360
Arcane mumbo-jumbo it may be, but it does work!

Get a Mission Statement!

2009-05-05T23:34:00.003+10:00

As part of the preliminaries for a recent job interview, I was given a form with some questions to answer.

Q: What is your personal (ie non-work) mission statement?

A: Life is not a mission statement!

I haven't yet heard whether or not they want to see me again.

[Update: turns out they didn't! I'm a little disappointed but, really, I have difficulty taking people who ask such questions as seriously as they'd like to be. Oh well, to other prospects...]

The Silence of the Recruiters

2009-04-24T09:18:00.003+10:00

I have a fair streak of the cynic in me. I am aware of it, and try to avoid it. Sometimes, though, it seems justified.

Particularly when it comes to the job market. Having been on the unemployment scrap heap several times in the past, I am aware of a number of annoying attitudes and mindsets of employees and agencies.

No denying times is hard!
Almost as hard as the worst pies in London
- Mrs Lovett, from 'Sweeney Todd' (Sondheim)

Now, I know there's a global recession on and not enough to go around and all that. But consider what is on offer.

We have the buzzwords and vapid phrases that accompany adverts, and which are supposed to ignite our interest:

'passionate about...' (under 25 and will work for Red Bull)
'hit the ground running' (like the strawberry jam from a dropped piece of toast, perhaps?)
'work/life balance' (according to Dilbert: 84 hours/week for us, 84 for you)
'friendly workplace' (never go home)
'work hard play hard' (see work/life balance)
'team player' (will shaddup and do as told. Can be harangued for not being able to work independently when they ask where the documentation is hidden)
'can work independently' (can ask where the documentation is hidden. Can be harangued for not being a team player if the questions become too uncomfortable)

(Well, OK! Maybe I *am* being a cynic. Maybe I've come across too many NPD types. Luvett's pies got their content from somewhere!)

We have the entrenched mindsets that require a new applicant to be precisely like the previous one. I have previously referred to this as the Athena wishlist that creates stifling GlassWalls and results in a DryWaterhole of talent.

You are supposed to stretch yourself by operating outside your zone of comfort, but not your employer's

Then there is the claim that many jobs advertised are fake: trumpets to blow hot air into an agency's prospects. This is possible: but it is usually apparent in the spam-like number of hastily scrawled adverts from one company or another. I did apply for a couple of positions with one such company, and rang them up to find out what was going on: I became rather fed up when they kept 'losing' my resume and asking me to resubmit, and resubmit.

I am putting together a personal blacklist of such.

(message to recruiters: if I am expected to write an intelligent, well structured, grammatically correct, and properly spelt letter of application, *YOU* are expected to do the same with your advertisements!)

So much for nihilistic grumbles. Let's try and provide a little constructive criticism.

At this point, I would like to thank all recruitment folk who *have* told me I was 'unsuccessful on this occasion'. The message may be a little disappointing, but at least it's a message. The reason for my gratitude is that there is another regrettably common practice to add to the above litany of long term foolishness. I refer to the 'Wall of Silence' that appears to surround many of the job applications I make.

What happens is this:

I see a promising sounding job
I submit my resume, together with a cover letter to emphasise how my skillset matches the job description.
- And that's it! No simple response rejecting my application. Not even an acknowledgment that the application was ever made.

Now, I am trying *not* to be a cynic here. I have been through the outplacement process, and am aware that recruiters are often swamped with applications and can't be expected to give personal attention to each and every applicant.

Nevertheless, I think that some recognition needs to be made for the effort in putting together those applications in the first place. It needn't be much: just a brief note letting people who don't make the short list know they haven't made the grade on this occasion. It should be as easy as launching a script that scans the mail list and does this:

if subject contains jobref x and source is not in shortlist x then:
send sorry note
discard application

Good manners cost nothing. Bad manners cost you customers.

We Were Doomed!

2009-04-02T12:47:00.002+11:00

Jamais Cascio has an unusually sober assessment of humanity's prospects in his latest posting.

The only thing I can add is this:

The world hadn't ended as promised.
Screaming in outrage, the mob gathered up all the doomsayers, tied them to stakes, and lit the flames.
Chants of 'Die! Die!' drowned the screams and protests. Through the smoke and haze, no-one else noticed the tall cowled figure standing beside Cascio.
"I don't understand" protested Cascio feebly, looking at his corporeal form crisping in the pyre.
"YOU'RE NOT THE FIRST." replied Death conversationally. It seemed to be what was required on these occasions.
"I mean, *why* didn't it all end? We had all the data we could have. Petabytes of it! We double checked the GEAS figures in a dozen scenarios: a DOZEN d'you hear? The margin for error just wasn't there!"
Death looked at Cascio with renewed interest.
"YOU ARE REFERRING TO THE RECENTLY AVERTED CATASTROPHE, THEN?"
"What else? It couldn't be avoided. There was no way we could have survived it. So... how?"
Death considered stories he'd heard when he was younger (if he ever *had* been younger). Morbid and cautionary tales of Deaths in other Universes consulting doomsayers and betting the graveyard in the futures markets. The trouble was, that nothing was separated from anything else, not really. It seemed to be something you forgot when you had discarded the personal touch of a scythe for an shiny, new, ultra-efficient combine harvester that just begged to be taken out for a spin. At that point, something about all those rotating knives seemed to get cause and effect a bit blurred.
"I THINK" he finally said. "I THINK THAT THE CLARIFYING PHRASE YOU SEEK IS 'TOO BIG TO FAIL'"
A smile lit up the shade's face as realisation dawned "Oh! Of course!" he whispered as he faded away.
Death contemplated the spot where Cascio had been, a frown trying in vain to crease his calcified brow.
"OR, MAYBE IT WAS 'BAKERS DOZEN?'"

- with apologies to Pratchett

Curious Times

2009-03-13T12:02:00.002+11:00

The old chinese curse about living in interesting times was never more apt than today.

A tipping point appear to have been passed, and things on the political stage are changing faster than a melting polar icecap.*

Two years ago, in an atmosphere of suppression and denial, the UN ICPP released its assessment of the world environment, suggesting that climate change would cause an average increase of about 2-3 degrees by the end of this century.

A world that is three degrees warmer can expect to see a 75% reduction in forest cover. Come to the Australian high country and see it happening: now!

A world that is three degrees warmer can expect to experience sea level rises of well over a meter, displacing hundred of millions of coastal dwelling people. Look at migration in history, and you will see war and rumours of war.

This week, a conference in Copenhagen was told that the ICPP report was 'woefully out of date'.

This is not news. It was known or suspected that the report had been watered down to suit the prevailing taste two years ago.

What is news is that scientists at the conference were able to present their findings without fear or favour. They did so, and their news was received with great gravity by the Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen:

"Business as usual is dead - green growth is the answer to both our climate and economic problems.

"I hope the whole world will join us and set a two degree goal as an ambition of a climate deal in Copenhagen,"

Note that the goal is no longer to get us back where we were. This is now considered impossible with our current technology and capacity to act.

It has been mentioned elsewhere that US President Obama's inauguration speech contained an interesting turn of phrase that suggested a true committment to the scientific method. It is to be hoped that this is true, and allows us to put an upbeat spin on that curse, because we are in for some very curious times ahead, and will need every gram of objective assessment and ability to see us through it.

The party's over, folks! Time to 'beat the t-two'!

* I sincerely hope so! If we can't move faster than this, we are history.

Surreal

2009-02-10T12:42:00.002+11:00

Last Saturday, Melbourne recorded its hottest day on record (46.2C). From a cool start, the temperature quickly ramped up as the 'February dragon' started breathing. The wind reached a crescendo. The sky had turned a strange shade of grey, and there was a great curtain of cloud in the north. Dust? Smoke? Either way, it was not looking good.

At about three I opened the front door to be greeted with dust and smoke... and a blast from the south as the cool change struck. Within half an hour, the temperature had plummeted to below 30C and it was possible to venture outside without feeling you were stepping into an oven.

Sunday morning dawned overcast and with a cool wind. And peals of thunder. I had put my name down for a bushwalk with my local club but, despite the coolness, the thought of strong winds and lightning strikes in tinder dry forest had me wondering, yet again, just what it was I had been thinking. The walk leader spared me the cost of a phone call when he rang to say the walk was cancelled, as it was confirmed to be in a fire zone.

The walk had been planned for Lake Mountain, a few kilometres outside Marysville. Need I say more?

Even as the town died in a conflagration, the weather in Melbourne continued cool and mild, with occasional showers.

Surreal.

Hothouse

2009-02-05T09:18:00.004+11:00

Melbourne's weather report:

Mon Jan 26	25.5
Tue Jan 27	36.4
Wed Jan 28	43.4
Thu Jan 29	44.3
Fri Jan 30	45.1
Sat Jan 31	30.1
Sun Feb 1	33.8

The angry rainbow serpent breathed
and rendered bare a grove of trees

What's this picture? Signs of an early autumn? Nope, this is what four days of temperatures in the low to mid-forties (not to mention a generous monthly rainfall of 0.3mm) does to plane trees. Being mature trees, they will probably recover. Hopefully, the same can be said for Melbourne's groaning transport system

The worry is that this sort of weather is likely to become a summer feature, and is likely to recur some time in the next decade. Indeed, it's due for an encore this Saturday. I won't be clapping!

The hot wyrm sighed
and thousands of its brethren died

In recent months, I have started up a worm farm. It' taken a little while to get going, since the starter packs don't really have enough worms to make a huge dent in the food scraps. However, worms do what worms do and, until a week ago, I was developing a thriving colony.

Then the heat wave proceeded to make worm stew out of them.

This is partly my fault, I didn't take the recommended steps in time and, when I did, I didn't do them properly.

Thus, if you think to pour cool water over the steaming vat, *do* remember to open the drain plug! In hot weather, worms head for the cool depths... the problem in this case being that the 'depths' in this case were still exposed to the hot air. They would have been suffering even before I tried to drown them!

A more effective measure I found was to drape wet newspaper around the sides. Unfortunately, it was a case of too little, too late. Plus, the newspaper needed re-wetting frequently (every hour or so)

The end result is that I had an Annelid dieback of Permian proportions (~90%) There do seem to be a few scattered remnants, but we will see how they go, and whether I'll have to get a booster pack to recover the numbers. I might until the hot weather is over before I do that! Meantime, it's back to the old compost bin.

New Year Catchup

2009-01-27T09:23:00.003+11:00

Given that it's Jan 28, this is hardly new year (unless we adopt the chinese calendar)

Still, having got out of the habit of noting my comings and goings, I have a few things to catch up on. Which I will do so now since, as you will see, I have a bit of time.

Here goes:

1. Superstruct.
The game started October 6 and ran until November 17. During that period, I was too busy living in 2019 to write the reality checks as promised.

A potted list of of observations:

it was fun: working in a chaotic environment with several thousand other contributors was a stimulating experience
it was rewarding: I seemed to make a bit of a mark... got my 100 points, although the allocation seemed a little subjective.
it was frustrating: the user interface was ... um... well, 'griefed' is a polite description. While a bit of gameplay was to be had from pretending that apocaphylic crackers were causing major disruptions to the system, the joke wore thin after a while. I think the environment and scenarios was complicated enough without a system that failed to provide adequate communication between people and their ideas and which, until halfway through, was 'closed'. The overall result was that good ideas and stories had an active half life of a day or so before they got buried under the next set of contributions. You were left with a sense of isolation, that you were the only one active. A number of players tried to rectify the issues by setting up companion websites (chief of which being the superstruct wiki, the REDS site, and Reconstruct) I tried to improve the connectivity between ideas and stories with common themes, but was stymied by the lack of linking facilities. The Cloud Garden was the best I could come up with, and it might have been useful *if* we could have got it up earlier. As it was, by the time it was active, the game was nearly over, and most people, if they put in tags at all, were using their own nomenclature. Result: lots of tags with relatively few links.
it was ambitious: expecting useful solutions from a scenario with five interdependent threats was always going to be an ask. I tended to concentrate on the 'power struggle', as it appeared a little under-represented. 'Outlaw Planet' allowed me to add a few satirical digs at Internet Explorer's lack of SVG support.
it was intriguing: how other people reacted to the premise. Most active participants concentrated on the refugee and pandemic scenarios, painting pictures of a society nearing total collapse. That made for some dramatic storytelling, but missed the point a little: the GEAS forecast suggesting that collapse was due in twenty years, so most blogs read like 2029 rather than 2019. We'd left it just a little too late...

Active participants? The number of people who took the trouble to sign up, and then did absolutely nothing whatsoever, was astonishing. Perhaps it is a feature of the social network scene that you sign up for everything and leave it?
It is still going:

Would I do it again? I think so. Hopefully, the system would have a few improvements (like RSS feeds and linkability) embedded. I still suspect that what I called 'diffusion' will remain a problem for any future versions. Hopefully, I will be able to spend more time playing the game and less time fixing it!

2. My Future
I have had another work-related Torino event. Hardly surprising, given the current world circumstances. This one was very predictable since my contract was due to expire at the end of last year, the product was pretty well complete (or functioning adequately) and there was no other work going at Invetech. So, I finished up work on Christmas Eve. Last time I was lucky, pretty well walking from one job to another, and then back again when that project was cancelled.

This time, the process has been taking a bit longer, partly due to the season, partly due to the circumstances.

So, if you, or someone you know, wants a C++/ PHP/ Web programming jack-of-all-trades (and good at most!) in the Melbourne area, let me know. I will try and get my details up at LinkedIn.

3. The New Guard
With Barack Obama's inauguration, it seems the whole world has heaved a collective sigh of relief. I know the feeling well, having had the oppressive 'we control' attitude of first Kennett, then Howard, and now Bush lifted from the popular outlook.

One question remains: is he the real thing? This is particularly poignant to Australians since the Rudd government, after a few promising steps (Kyoto ratification, apologies to the stolen generation, 2020 summit) has gone weak at the knees (a feeble 5% reduction in greenhouse emissions, when there is a clear mandate to do more? The only saving grace is that it *is* a reduction: we need to demonstrate that more can be achieved)

Anyway, is Obama going to go the same way? David Brin, reading the inauguration speech, was heartened by the inclusion of a single word in this passage:
Our challenges may be new. The instruments with which we meet them may be new. But those values upon which our success depends — hard work and honesty, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism — these things are old. These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history. What is demanded then is a return to these truths. What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility — a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.
It is a word which didn't need to be there, and whose inclusion suggests that Obama isn't 'just words'; that he does grok the scientific method, and the need for transparency and openness. It is a trait of humanity which has been ruthlessly stomped on by the insular minds of the empire that has been ruling the US (and, by extension, *us*) for far too long.

It is the perfect foil to the old Chinese proverb about interesting times.

Superstruct

2008-10-04T15:00:00.005+10:00

For the next six weeks, I will be trying out (and trying not to spend too much time at) playing an online game called Superstruct

The premise is that, in 2019, the world is confronted by five 'superthreats' which, together, threaten the extinction of humanity.

My persona will be posting reports on a companion blog: The Chips Are Down. Relative sanity will be maintained here.

Play starts on Oct 6, but there is already some setup activity going on (eg on facebook)

Sound like fun? Follow the link to find out more.

This is Not Good

2008-10-02T16:37:00.010+10:00

Melbourne water has a useful site publishing the current reservoir levels each week. The records go back twelve years now, and what they show is not good.

Skip back to 1996, when the levels were about 96% and a drought started.

1996-97: water levels drop to 70%.

The levels stablise, in between a bad season every three years or so:

99 - 01

02 - 05

Things really started looking serious in 2006, when levels dropped to 40%

06-08

And this year looks pretty grim as well (although we are getting rain, unlike 2006, when there was no rain whatsoever.)

More significant is the level in mid-winter (the low point) which has dropped from 80% in 1996 to 30% in 2008 (and looks like being 25% in 2009)

My prediction is that the reservoirs will be running dry in 8-10 years.

What to do?

A new dam a) takes time and b) assumes that there will be rain to capture
Piping water from the Goulburn is laughable (with Lake Eildon currently at 9%, what water would that be?)
A salination plant is feasible, but is huge and expensive.
Recycling the water is cheaper, but has unfortunate connotations and no politician seems game to touch it.

Who's This Guy?

2008-09-23T23:20:00.002+10:00

According to a site for the Auckland Writers and Readers festival:

"Tony Fisk is the Managing Director of HarperCollins Publishers New Zealand and President of the Book Publishers Association of New Zealand."

It's news to me, and the fellow in the photograph isn't me either.
It appears, from the above site, that we share two things, a name, and this blog.

In fact, we share one thing (and it's not the blog!)

E-lated (and about time too!)

2008-09-23T23:04:00.003+10:00

Somewhat over a month ago, I announced I was going to describe my experiences setting up and using an electric bike conversion kit.

Having, at last, got my complementary wiki going, and the report itself written and laid out and all the rest^*, I am pleased to say that it is ready, and may be found here.

Better late than never, I suppose!^**

^*at least, to a certain level of legibility
^**(How I'm going to cope with Superstruct is going to be interesting!)

E-lation bike: first shots

2008-07-29T10:54:00.003+10:00

I actually put this together a couple of weeks ago, but a number of issues have prevented me from posting this earlier.

But, *finally* here is a shot of the e-lation Mk2 motor system installed on my bike (a Cypress Giant hybrid: 21" frame)

impressions: when it works, it's great! When it doesn't work (yes, there have been teething problems, which I am working through), then at least the 7.5Kg extra weight isn't *that* significant a drag

I will be blogging/wiki-ing about the trials and tribulations later. Meanwhile, enjoy!:

Arachnophilia: Lest We Forget

2008-07-18T09:13:00.002+10:00

Since it pops up periodically in discussions, and since I'm getting fed up with hunting for it, here is a link to the archive of Patrick Farley's brilliant but uncompleted webcomic 'Spiders'.

It tells the tale of a few protagonists in the war in Afghanistan, fought in an alternate universe where Al Gore is president and the might of the US army is represented by a horde of miniature surveillance devices run by an open networked community.

If you think that's weird, wait until you start reading! Like a lot of great cult productions, the ending is effectively left to you. (Farley may complete it, one day, but don't hold your breath)

http://web.archive.org/web/20070221233757rn_1/e-sheep.com/spiders/

http://gadgets.boingboing.net/2008/04/29/british-to-supply-ro.html

Yeah, I know, the image is copyright of Patrick Farley 2001-03. He can tell me to remove it any time, and I will.

The E-bike has Landed!

2008-06-27T14:11:00.003+10:00

This is a saga that started last October, when I participated in my annual cycle commute on 'Ride to Work' day.

The place where I work has quite a healthy (in spirit as well as body) community of keen cyclists who commute to work on a semi-regular basis.

All well and good, and I have even done it myself... every 'ride to work' day... just to prove to myself that I *could* do it.

Now, for the record, it's about a 12km trip each way on good bike paths and back streets. This doesn't take into account the various hilly bits along the way. Nevertheless it is quite doable, if you have a reasonable level of fitness, and if you've the time. (It takes me about 50 minutes each way. Throw in time to shower my sweaty and malodorous hide and it's about an hour from door to desk)

Unfortunately, I don't have the time to do it every day, and said as much shortly after the last 'ride to work' day, when the 'Mulga Bills' were evangelising.

Then someone pointed out that, with an electric motor attached, they were able to:

ride to work in a reasonable timeframe
arrive without getting too sweaty
still got a reasonable level of exercise
were therefore motivated to ride to work regularly (ie daily)

So, with that message for inspiration, I went shopping. The result was a down payment on an Elation E-bike kit.

... this was last March. I was told that delivery would be delayed due to a design rehash (something to do with the power plug being placed in an exposed position.

Since then, I have waited, and waited... and (along with a blameless but increasingly defensive retailer) ... waited.

Until today!

So, I'm intending to pick it up tomorrow, and shall be documenting the setup experience in due course.

Stay tuned.

Update (July 18: I have fixed it to my bike, but there are a few teething problems which I want to sort out before I say anything more.)

Just (0)pining

2008-04-19T00:16:00.008+10:00

The Monty Python parrot sketch provides an altogether too appropriate basis for my take on the sorry saga of the ECMA-376 OOXML standard accreditation process (yes, that is a Norwegian blue!):

(Bewdiful plumage!?)
ECMA: Enticing Cage for Moribund Avians

Silliness aside, a much more mature, balanced and insightful opinion may be had from Tim Bray.

Whence Came That Heavenly(?) Fragrance?

2008-03-29T13:35:00.002+11:00

Have your online documents had an odour about them lately? A sort of 'Ook' smell?

Do you wonder where it might be coming from?

Check out this Groklaw article in which someone spills the beans on the shenanigans that have been going on around the ISO fast tracking of the OOXML documentation standard. A lot of people appear to be getting very desparate!

As someone succinctly put it: maybe governments can mandate that car tyres meet a certain standard, but can they mandate a standard that only Bridgestone can meet?

I don't have a problem with Mi... I mean ECMA proposing a standard based on Word. I do have a problem with the crass, abusive way they are trying to get it adopted.

You may not think it important. I think it has a lot of ramifications if Mi... I mean ECMA get their standard adopted (shades of Nov 2000).

As PJ puts it:
... I see an anonymous comment suggest that ISO now stands for: [I Sold Out]

But isn't it good to see how many are refusing to do so? Consider the pressure, the threats, the stacking the deck, evidently some promises too, not to mention the confusing and ever changing rules, and it's remarkable. And yet all around the world, people have the courage and the integrity to say No.

The Songs of Distant Earth Sing On

2008-03-20T22:15:00.005+11:00

A number of people have already written heartfelt and eloquent tributes to Sir Arthur C Clarke, who died last Tuesday (see, for example, here, here, and most particularly, here). I will not waste time repeating their sentiments, although I share many of them.

Irresistibly, in view of Clarke's request that there be absolutely no religious trappings at his funeral, I have a vision of a sprightly gent in wheelchair and glasses confronting the pearly gates:
Clarke: "Open the pod bay doors, Pete"
St. Peter: "I'm sorry, Art, but I cannot do that."

Like a lot of boys, I first discovered Clarke's writings in my early teens. I can remember borrowing a non-descript book from the local library without even paying particular note of the author's name. Its bland appearance held no clue as to the awesome breadth of vision contained within. Its name: 'The City and the Stars'. It remains one of the most timeless sf novels I have read. Highly unusual in a genre that seems intent on challenging reality to outdo it. While I may have missed the author's name at first, I nonetheless soon made the connection with that epic and other gems of wonder. Islands in the Sky, Profiles of the Future, and Report on Planet Three became my unofficial science textbooks during my high school years.

Ever the optimist, Clarke was no pollyanna. He was able to explore darker fates as well as lighter. One novel of Clarke's that will never be a favourite of mine is 'Childhood's End'. Reading the commentaries accompanying the tribues I have referre to above I would appear to be in the minority here, as many consider it one of his greatest works. It is certainly powerful, and I can appreciate the prose and vision, great as always. Nevertheless, I found the ultimate premise of a galactic overmind guiding humanity to a form of apotheosis not at all uplifting, indeed strangely repellent.

I have been pondering this in recent days. Is the idea so different from that of 2001? Clarke was seldom sentimental about his characters, and often killed them off near the end of the story. After all, it was a useful device to allow the conclusion to take on a much wider scope than a single point of view. So, why not apply the device on a much larger scale?

I suppose my problem was, in part, one of expectation. Some people who had read the book described it to me in hushed tones as 'just beautiful'. This recommendation did not prepare me for what is, in effect, one of the first 'left behind' novels. For that is the crux of my distaste: the depiction of the fruit of the younger generation being 'harvested' away from the vine of the older, which is then left to wither and perish, taking all its achievements with it.

The sum of all histories: worthless dust? No! I do not consider such a fate to be beautiful (and I don't know that Clarke ever described is as such either). It concerns me that many people do.

To more aspiring things. I believe Clarke said he wished to be remembered for 'The Fountains of Paradise'. This describes a very worthwhile endeavour: the building of a space elevator, which I have commented on before. Alas, while the idea is definitely being considered, it's most active proponents (Liftport) appear to have paid the price of aiming too high. Nevertheless, I find some solace from another tale that Clarke had to tell: the laying of the first transatlantic telegraph cable.

First attempted in the 1860's (after delays arising from a small civil disturbance in the colonies), two vessels met in the middle of the Atlantic ocean and proceeded to lay a couple of thousand kilometres of steel cable. After some months of dealing with bad weather, twists, kinks, and breakages (broken ends being dredged up to be re-spliced by groping around with a large hook on the end of several thousand feet of rope), the two ends finally made it to the opposite shores, and congratulatory telegrams were sent. Alas, with Maxwell's equations put to print only thirty years previously, the overall understanding of how electrical current might flow in a wire surrounded by salt water was not that well understood. In retrospect, it is perhaps astonishing that the line was able to transmit the paltry number of characters that it did before failing completely.

However.

One of the messages sent cancelled a previous order dispatching Canadian regiments to quell the Indian mutiny; which was now under control. The savings of not having to ship and supply those soldiers halfway round the world and back again more than offset the huge cost and effort those few signals had required. Once the potential was demonstrated, other cables were successfully laid and, after that, progress was rapid.

So I think it will be with a space elevator. And Clarke's increasingly optimistic forecasts will stay on track.

So, I think an appropriate spot to end is with Bryn Terfel and Roberto Alagna singing 'In the Depths of the Temple' (the final song broadcast by the Magellan as it departs Thalassa forever).

And Earth sings on....

Democracy on the March

2008-02-28T14:39:00.004+11:00

This is what you do when caring administrators decide to place the early (democrat) polling booth seven miles from your school: walk to it (and block a highway just to underscore the point)

Says one commenter of the green and scaly variety:

"Get a life , you democrat whiners"

I think they have!

2020Summit: Comments Please!

2008-02-27T13:33:00.002+11:00

This entry is simply a placeholder for comment arising from my little thinking spot at the 2020 summit wiki.

I do not currently allow other people edit access to that site (no fine control on what you can access!), but I am happy to discuss anything here.

A Whimsical Pledge

2008-02-22T14:15:00.007+11:00

Following on from the last piece, wouldn't this make an interesting addition to the pledgebank?

"I, Kevin Rudd, will commit my government to policies intended to make Australia a net carbon neutral emitter by 2050, but only if the leaders of nations whose combined GDP exceed five times that of Australia will agree to do so as well."

Why five? It worked for me once before!

Maybe I'll suggest it to the 2020 summit?

Oh well, one can hope!

(Update: there is another wiki where one may contribute such things: 2020 summit
or http://ozideas.wetpaint.com.
Take your pick)

The Awful Arithmetic

2008-02-22T13:26:00.003+11:00

"We do have to recognise the awful arithmetic; if targets like that 450 [parts per million] are to remain viable, in the end we will have to do significantly more than that."

So said the Australian government's climate advisor, Professor Ross Garnaut, on the government re-stating its commitment to a 60% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050.

In his just-released progress report that paints a future for Australia that is even more bleak than the IPCC's assessments, he advocates a 90% reduction and, to be fair, the government hasn't ruled that target out (and may be awaiting the final report before changing their stance). Possibly if other nations also commit to a similar goal?

Meanwhile, the longer we dawdle, the worse it gets.

Speaking from a US perspective, Alex Steffen likens the situation to parties committing to get from A to B, when they are being told to get from A to I and, in fact, they need to get from A to Q. (Presumably, the final, awful realisation will be that the essential goal was A-Z !)

The dynamics of climate change is a complex issue and, when faced with the unknown, the common tendency is to do nothing: the status quo has worked in the past; it may or may not be better to stick with it until we know more.

The harsh fact is, we do know more: in this case, the status quo will kill you.

Censorship: Damage to be Re-routed Around

2008-02-19T10:00:00.005+11:00

From the BBC:

Whistle-blower site taken offline

A controversial website that allows whistle-blowers to anonymously post government and corporate documents has been taken offline in the US.

Wikileaks.org*, as it is known, was cut off from the internet following a California court ruling, the site says.

Since when did California tell me what I could access?

The net is being censored...*sigh*

...so the net responds: re-routing...

*Since the injunction, it has become known as http://88.80.13.160/wiki/Wikileaks

On Sorrow

2008-02-14T09:23:00.002+11:00

Yesterday, a few long needed words were said in the Australian parliament (full text here)

For the pain, suffering and hurt of these Stolen Generations, their descendants and for their families left behind, we say sorry.

To the mothers and the fathers, the brothers and the sisters, for the breaking up of families and communities, we say sorry.

And for the indignity and degradation thus inflicted on a proud people and a proud culture, we say sorry.

The structure of Rudd's apology to one culture reflects old customs from another:

Three times:
the curse is done,
the witness borne,
and the past laid down.

It was a cathartic moment for many, a moment spoiled somewhat by the opposition leader's rambling, defensive, and seemingly sullen response.

Looking at the full text of Nelson's speech, I think his sin was in structure rather than intent. It lacked a point and rambled. Lacking focus, his listeners were quickly distracted and annoyed by perceived slights in what he did say. (Ironically, it was Nelson who had to endure the slow clapping that Andrew Bolt, the increasingly shrill culture warrior of the Herald-Sun, demanded should be directed at Rudd)

I think the problem the Liberal party has always had in confronting the stolen generations is that it has never been able to separate the burden of admission from the burden of blame. The stance has been that to say sorry is to admit that something which happened long before many of the parliamentary leaders were born is somehow their fault. Yes, there is also the matter of being liable for compensation if you admit guilt, and yes, there have been individual claims that have been successfully pursued in various states (notably Tasmania and South Australia) .

But this is a product of adversarial thinking and fear of reprisal. When dealing with old hurts people, as a rule, are more interested in closure than vengeance. Australian Aborigines are not a vindictive people.

Still, if Nelson feels that an apology needs to be for something more personal, then he could have referred to these things:

sorrow that the people who enacted the forcible removal of children from their parents could not apologise in person.
sorrow that his party had acted out of fear of reprisal and a tidal wave of compensation claims.
sorrow that the day of reconciliation was so long in coming.

Said three times, then the curse is done and the burden laid down.

The future will happen as it will but, with fewer burdens, it has more scope to happen well.

Man Love Rules, OK?

2008-02-07T15:50:00.001+11:00

It's official:

Image is from Daniel Pipes. I don't where he got it from!
(For the record, I consider it perfectly innocuous!)

The 2020 Summit

2008-02-04T11:51:00.000+11:00

In Australia, there is evidence that the 'decade of the patronising bastard' has ended':

"ONE thousand of the nation's "best and brightest brains" will be invited to an "Australia 2020 summit" in a bold attempt to reshape the country's future."

What a good idea! (Well, I think it is. A number of others seem to think Rudd should 'just get on and govern'!)

The full transcript of this proposal is here.

One could feel a sense of anticipation at the prospect of putting forward one's solutions to a receptive and critical audience... if one had the slightest chance of being invited to this funfest.

Still, there's no reason to give up on that account, is there? After all, this is the era of blog activism! I can always put down my thoughts on webpage, and let the delegates use or ignore as they see fit.

So, that's what I'm going to do here

The Other Car...

2008-01-30T14:47:00.000+11:00

Alex Steffen has a fascinating article in progress, which I will recommend to any bot or person dropping by:

"My Other Car is a Bright Green City"

It stems from a discussion of the new Tesla roadster and its wonderful green credentials (120mpg etc). Alex thinks it's cool, but is nonetheless missing the point:

Well designed cities would have a much greater impact on emissions than well designed cars
Cars, *any* cars, are a major barrier to letting us create well designed cities.

Well planned cities are compact, high density communities.
Cars need space, and that need for space encourages urban sprawl

Well planned cities allow efficient and fast mass transit systems
Cars encourage commuting, and hence call for even more space (ie roads) which makes it more costly to provide more infrastructure such as effective mass transit systems

Well planned cities create a sense of community
Cars cause isolation and stress

Well planned cities improve the quality of life
Cars reduce it (unless you like commuting an hour a day)

And a myriad other trade-offs that Alex discusses far better than I can.

In the comments section, I stated that:

This essay serves as an excellent example of the sort of 'light to bright' education that's needed at 'the end of the beginning' to address the 'what do we do now?' syndrome.'

This is a statement contains a lot of buzzword gobbledygook which I think is worthwhile interpreting:

Green cars are 'light green', easy to visualise, easy for the individual to contemplate and even acquire. The down side is that their influence extends only to the individual level and hence, they are a drop in the ocean. Worse, they have the potential to divert attention from better alternatives.
Green cities are 'bright green': something that promises to make substantial reductions to our ecological footprint, but which requires systemic change to bring about (NB: not all systemic changes are substantial. eg: the decision to phase out incandescent bulbs in favour of compact fluoros)
'light to bright' is the process by which people who are trying to make a difference are guided, through contemplating the simple things they can do, to a greater appreciation of the systemic changes that are necessary to make real inroads into our environmental problems. It usually starts with a thing, thinking about how much that thing improves matters and what could be done to improve matters more. Alex's essay does this by looking at the extent of the environmental problem, looking at the paltry improvements a green car makes, and highlighting the problems it causes from still being a car. He then looks at his 'other car'.
The 'end of the beginning' was a term Alex used a while ago to open a discussion on what needed to be the new goals for the environment and sustainability lobbies now that the message about imminent and abrupt climate change had been successfully delivered and heeded by the bulk of society. The main concern was to alleviate the inevitable reaction to long term denial: namely the 'what do we do now?' syndrome. The likely response is vague light green gestures. Which is where the 'light to bright' bit comes in...

Like all good essays, I find it raises a number of further topics to explore:

How do we lessen the impact of the extensive traffic lanes we do require? (using airships to move goods between terminus and warehouse? Genetically engineered grassmats that can cope with car tyres?)
Is it really a question of why we move things? (abstract: because things, being composed of hadrons, can't occupy the same space.)
The question of commuting makes a naive assumption that our destinations are unchanging. Sure, it is nice if work is within walking distance, but if I change jobs, what then? Do I move house?

But enough of my waffle. Go read Alex!

Sonic Cicadas

2007-11-29T14:35:00.000+11:00

It's something for the Last Word in New Scientist:

Q: Given that they're a dime a dozen at this time of year, and hardly need to broadcast their presence to a prospective mate a kilometre away, how come cicadas need to be so excruciatingly LOUD!!?

A1: Because, like all marketeers, they're trying to stand out from the crowd (like everybody else)!

A2: Because they're all stone deaf!

The Devil and the Deep Blue Sea

2007-11-26T16:00:00.000+11:00

So, we've had an election. A time when each of us has fifteen minutes of fame and democracy (fifteen minutes being the minimum time needed to fill in the senate ballot paper if you do it properly)

And what choices did we have?

The Devil We Know
John Howard: easily demonised but, by his own standards, a basically decent and honourable fellow. Unfortunately, his standards and values are not my standards and values. Particularly, wrt anti-terrorism, indigenous reconciliation, climate change, and mandatory detention. And we've had him for twelve years.

The Mysterious Deep Blue Sea
Kevin Rudd: possessed of a keen intellect and a swathe of solutions. His priorities are, on the whole, my priorities. But, who is he, really? And how experienced is he at running a country (ingeneous criticism: no one could ever be said to have more experience at running a country the the incumbent. By this logic nobody would ever get voted out of government. So, 'how good is he' might be a better way of putting it)

The Choice
Apart from a large dollop of pork at the outset (I need to find out where that $34bn 'tax break' came from so conveniently and why no one else commented on it) Howard followed the standard mantra of 'economy, economy, economy!'. Rudd kept a small profile and basically followed suit (with a few muted counter-spells of 'infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure!')

Neither of these were the real issues. I would like to think climate change policies and draconian counter-terrosist laws were what people were concerned about, and maybe they were. However, the real decider was an Industrial Relations bill that was born of a majority in both houses, and was viewed by everyone as distinctly draconian and one-sided.

As tales mounted of worker after worker being diddled out of basic rights like holidays and unfair dismissal appeals it became clear, to all but the liberals, that the thing was a lemon. Even when the libs embarked on a massive, government sponsored, spin campaign to prop it up, they got egg on their faces when one of their shining stars was outed as not paying wages to his own son.

The Outcome
The campaign was long, boring, and ultimately futile: the rock steady polls showed that people had made their minds up twelve months ago, when Rudd became opposition leader and was seen to be the viable contender they had been waiting for.

So, we had a choice between staying with the old devil in a leaky boat, or jumping ship into a vast blue uncharted ocean.

And, when push came to shove, Australia chose to jump.

So, may I just say this: hope we can swim...

Liftport Plug

2007-11-13T11:12:00.000+11:00

After a longish absence, Liftport is posting again.

Is building a functional, profitable space elevator by 2031 a feasible goal?

It's certainly a worthwhile one!

Welcome back, Michael & co.

A Silly Thought

2007-11-02T13:44:00.000+11:00

Call me dumb, but....

if a company refers to the work it does as 'intellectually challenging', how would you describe the people who work there?

Sharing: Bush Style

2007-10-19T11:01:00.000+10:00

Democrats fail to beat Bush veto

I guess they can only do what they can do. Highlight government priorities:

$190 bn for Iraq - yes
$35 bn tobacco tax for child care - no

I recall hearing the following on a radio show some years ago. I found a reference on the web, but I don't think it is the original. Still, I think it fits:

Lets share the food my brother,
Lets share the fruits of the Earth,
Steak for me and rice for you,
eggs for tea and rice for you,
Fruit and wine, Milk and jam,
cheese and pickles, milk and ham, for me,
And a little rice, just a little rice,
if you’re lucky, for you.

(Update: make that $196.4bn for Iraq, and *damn* lucky if you get any rice, punk!)

Nice One, Doctor!

2007-09-25T13:56:00.000+10:00

While there was a time when I'd hide behind the couch with the best of them, I found the appeal of Doctor Who waning at some point after the Key to Time was retrieved (the latter stages of the Tom Baker era, I think). I finally stopped watching when Colin Baker mangled the persona.

I had a brief check on the new series when it started, but felt the slightly manic Chris Eccleston was a bit too slapstick for my taste (staid Jon Pertwee fan that I was!)

If I thought Eccleston manic, the performance was nothing compared to David Tennant. Yet, somehow, I've found Tennant's portrayal of the Gallifreyan drifter has been growing on me!

The plots have been improving over the last series (#3), too, with interesting premises being explored in 'Human Nature/Family of Blood', a truly imaginative adversary and bit of time travel problem solving in 'Blink' (which gets my vote for 'best ever'), and finally, the grand Master revival finale.

An underlying theme of this series has been the increased level of support from companions Rose and Martha. It reached its climax with the Doctor thwarting the Master's wicked plot by restoring himself with the psychic energy provided by the mass populace of Earth that was channelled through a network set up over the preceding year by Martha.

OK, so it's a hokey bit of taradiddle! But dig a little. Have a look at the memes underlying the plot:

citizen empowerment
humanity cowed by aliens which turn out to be humanity's own decadent descendents (You would weep, Doctor, if you knew who they were!').
the Doctor's ecstatic pronouncement on his revivification: 'How can you call humans decadent when they're capable of *this*?'
a notable lack of what has been an emblematic facial feature of past incarnations of the Master (played here with barking enthusiasm by John Simm)? A feature whose absence immediately draws attention, thereby inviting comparison with another set of global terrorists.
the Doctor wanting to say one thing to the Master: 'I forgive you'
the Doctor trying to stop Martha's mother from killing the master by saying 'you're better than him'

I may be reading far too much into this, but it suggests to me that there is an air of receptiveness to an alternative to the catastrophic warmongering and erosion of fundamental liberties that's been the approach to terrorism for the last six years!

The Doctor always did eschew violence.

So Much To Do... So Little Time...

2007-09-13T10:33:00.000+10:00

I'm feeling a bit subdued this morning. Probably picking up on the sombre mood of two usually optimistic commentators:

WorldChanging's Alex Steffen makes a frank and bleak assessment of what's needed to ward off a looming global ecological catastrophe. Green stamps and Terra Passes aren't going to cut it. In fact, nothing short of a complete overhaul of civilisation is going to cut it.

And where's the political will for that?

David Brin, fresh back from a trip to China and Japan, quickly gets into an equally jaundiced appraisal of the State of the (US) Nation (and this supplemental comment is really depressing). He has a pet bit of (freely acknowledged) paranoia that suggests that a clade of aristocrats have been managing out democracy in the US, and are just waiting to take over and shut down this irritating bit of taradiddle called 'the Enlightenment'.

Cheery sentiments, which lead me to consider the end... of a little piece of Dylan Thomas:

...Do not go gentle
into that good night,
But rage,
rage,
against the ..
dying ..
of ..
the ..
light

So, what would you have done on Flight UA93?

Sad Legacy

2007-09-11T12:11:00.000+10:00

Six years ago a few sad men ruined everyone's day.

Six years on, and the legacy of those few sad men is perpetuated at every Iraqi checkpoint, in every minute spent in an airport baggage inspection queue, and in every inconvenience inflicted on the locals when the high and mighty get together for a chin-wag.

They claim that the sad men's patrons would like to continue their work but, while the voices of authority carry on like this, do they need to? Only when the lockdown is removed.

There's the irony.

A bit of lateral thinking on this subject is more than overdue.

When The River Ran Dry...

2007-09-07T16:24:00.000+10:00

Baghdad Burning had it's last entry on April 26. After an admission that she and her family had decided to leave Baghdad, River has been silent for over 4 months.

Until now, that is. They got out safely.

Us and Them

2007-09-07T13:21:00.000+10:00

Seven years ago, they came in their multitudes and mingled. There was chaos in the city, and order in chaos. Everyone had (or appeared to have) a good time. Some disruptive humour occurred when a toy wombat was dubbed the unofficial mascot of the event.

And then they left.

This week, a few came in their official aircraft, and were aloof. There was chaos imposed on the city, and no good order. Nobody appeared to be having a good time. One attempt at disruptive humour was swiftly brought to the ground, and the perpetrators charged.

They haven't left yet.

The difference in these two scenarios is symbolised by 5 km of chain mesh fence.
Those inside appear afraid of something outside
Those outside are supposed to be afraid of (or at least, impressed by) those inside.

Even at the height of the 2000 olympics, Sydneysiders still retained access to their own city. Today, 4 million people appear consigned to a suburban ghetto. Swept from the streets while diplomats travel in armed convoys.

I believe that high level meetings such as APEC have a useful role. I also think that this role can be fulfilled without causing the total disruption of a large city.

But then, there are examples to be set: we're all meant to be afraid these days, aren't we?

Sudoku Theories

2007-08-22T14:33:00.000+10:00

If some of the more contentious theories of the day could be expressed as Sudoku puzzles, then I think this is how Intelligent Design would look:

+---+---+---+
|...|...|...|
|...|...|...|
|...|...|...|
+---+---+---+
|...|.3.|...|
|..1|2.4|5..|
|...|.6.|...|
+---+---+---+
|...|.7.|...|
|...|.8.|...|
|...|.9.|...|
+---+---+---+

There appears to be an artifice present. However, unless you revere the central premise as a mystery not to be questioned, you will see that it is unsolvable.

On the other hand, Darwin's puzzle is the work of a blind man:

+---+---+---+
|1..|...|..7|
|...|.5.|...|
|...|...|...|
+---+---+---+
|.4.|...|...|
|...|2..|...|
|...|...|..9|
+---+---+---+
|...|...|...|
|...|..8|...|
|.6.|...|3..|
+---+---+---+

Random, with many unknowns.

Yet, somehow, it works.

The Carnival of Space is in Town!

2007-07-27T11:57:00.000+10:00

I first heard about it over at the Planetary Society blog. I didn't give it much further thought until I saw Brian Dunbar's submission request for week #13 and found out what it was about.

If you think a 'Carnival of Space' sounds like fun (as I did) then join the parade and check out the event for week#13 over at Liftport.

(Yes, I submitted a contribution, but you will have to go and find out what it is, and check out everyone else's as well!)

In Fifteen Years...

2007-07-20T00:27:00.000+10:00

Jamais Cascio issued an interesting challenge last week:

Think about the world of fifteen years hence (2022, if you're counting along at home). Think about how technology might change, how fashions and pop culture might evolve, how the environment might grab our attention, and so forth. Now, take a sentence or two and answer...
What do you fear we'll likely see in fifteen years?
What do you hope we'll likely see in fifteen years?
What do you think you'll be doing in fifteen years?

So, I thought I'd have a go.

When imagining the world in fifteen years time,

I fear that:

authorities will deny communities the capacity for resilience when responding to the various catastrophes that seem to be coming to a head this century. We saw this in the aftermath of hurricane Katriana (and how it needn't be so in the immediate aftermath of 9/11). Whether it be from cynical manipulation of vested interests, or the simple 'lockdown' panic reaction of incompetent administrators, monopolies and top-down centralised government structures are too rigid and brittle to be relied upon when disaster strikes. They will break, and people will suffer.
Melbourne reservoirs will be running dry regularly (last year's drought has broken, with extraordinary rainfalls and flooding, but I'm looking at the trend for the last ten years, and the prospect for recovery is not good)

I hope that:

my daughter will have better things to worry about than governments reacting badly to sad men with a death wish.
people will have a far greater say in the running of their societies than at present. It really is far too important to leave to just a few politicians (however open and accountable they might be).
online voting systems will (finally!) be reliable and convenient, and will encourage a greater community participation in decision making
the two-party system will begin to be replaced by something a little less dichotomous and reactive.
there is a viable, low pollution alternative to jet aircraft

I imagine myself:

taking a trip in a new technology dirigible airship
cursing myself for not taking out patents on vacuum displacement buoyancy systems
being cursed by companies seeking a competitive edge for making this technology open.
laughing at the fears I had fifteen years ago
worrying about what there will be to fear in another fifteen years (Apophisia, anyone?)

OK, now! How about hearing from Brian Dunbar, Pamela Jones, Tim Bray, Emily Lakdawalla, and Alfie Dennen?

And yourself, of course!

What Is Art?

2007-07-20T00:15:00.000+10:00

Here is my answer
Art: it gives an idea clothes!
Choose dress to suit

This is a question asked in my daughter's kindergarten class. See if you can do any better!

The GPL Monkey Trap

2007-07-07T01:04:00.001+10:00

This inspiraton arose from a couple of articles on Groklaw

The first is a transcript of a lecture by Eben Moglen on the future effects of GPLv3 (the end of monopolies?)

The second is about a certain Redmond company starting to get a clue about what the consequences of a particular licensing agreement they've got themselves into. Not happy!

But what can they do? Follow a cartoon's advice?

[Update: I like punchlines with delayed action fuses, but there's a fine line between subtletly and opacity. In this case, the image is a little too lo-res to show the label on the bottle clearly. So, at the risk of explaining a joke, I will simply state that it reads 'GPLv3 (contains monopoly)']

Sleepers, awake!

2007-06-03T00:13:00.000+10:00

As the things in the whitehouse seem intent on setting up the already overstretched and underachieving armed services of America for a war on Iran, I would like to send a message to those who are standing by and letting this happen. The ones who let themselves be stampeded by such utter drivel as the patriot act (you, who should recall what Johnson had to say about 'patriotism'). The ones who allowed the writ of habeus corpus to be removed from the legislation.

While your conscience, cowed, was sleeping,
something through your house came creeping.

Now, can you hear the silence?
(weeping)

Moonrise from ISS

2007-04-13T17:21:00.000+10:00

Jamais Cascio pointed this one out.

Dated June 2006, but still glorious!

Crab Haiku

2007-04-11T00:24:00.000+10:00

Crab prints on a tidal flat.
More fleeting than ours
yet more enduring

Adventures In Bad Coding

2007-03-14T11:25:00.000+11:00

After a rather prolonged absence from the blogosphere, I've decided to extract digit and start jotting down a few more rants and free pieces of advice.

My latest attempt is yet another blog called 'Adventures in Bad Coding', wherein I reveal a few blatant hacks and confess to a few mistakes, in the hope it will aid some another soul flailing about in a mound of source (personally, I prefer mine on the side)

WorldChanging Plug

2006-10-24T09:06:00.000+10:00

Do you think that the world is going to hell in a handcart?
Do you want to stop it? Don't know how, yet still want to try?

Doing something about it is what Worldchanging is for. For the last 2-3 years, they have been providing sensible and often deeply thoughtful observations on how to tackle global warming, environmental degradation, famine, ignorance, and out and out stupidity. And how to do it *now*, with what we've got.

The team are busily preparing for the launch of their book in November, and I think it's worth a billboard plug for any passers-by.

Actually, it's worth a lot more! Now why should I say that? See for yourself here and here.

Then go get yourself an early Christmas present:

Harry N. Abrams
Barnes & Noble
Amazon
Wherever else good books are sold.

Spot The Rover

2006-10-09T10:39:00.000+10:00

The new HIgh Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRise) camera orbitting Mars took this photograph of Victoria Crater a few days ago. Here's what to do:

Click on the image to go to the HiRise site
Move your mouse over the image shown there
Go 'Wow!'

The Cult of the Flesh Eating Zombie

2006-10-03T11:42:00.000+10:00

I've just read a disturbing piece by my alter ego, Robert Fisk.

'The Cult of Cruelty'

It compares the US army's 'Soldier's Creed' with a new mantra: the 'Warrior Ethos' and its dehumanising effect on the young men and women currently enlisted.

It bodes very ill for the future.

What is of concern about this new code is not what it states, but what it leaves out. This was of sufficient concern to one veteran that he wrote to Fisk, and prompted the article referred to. Fisk writes:

Like most Europeans — and an awful lot of Americans — I was quite unaware of this ferocious ‘code’ for US armed forces, although it’s not hard to see how it fits in with Bush’s rantings.
I’m tempted to point this out in detail, but my American veteran did so with such eloquence in his letter to me that the response should come in his words: ‘The Warrior Creed,’ he wrote, ‘allows no end to any conflict accept [sic] total destruction of the “enemy.” It allows no defeat ... and does not allow one ever to stop fighting (lending itself to the idea of the “long war”). It says nothing about following orders, it says nothing about obeying laws or showing restraint. It says nothing about dishonourable actions ...’

The ends justifies the means is a simple concept to grasp, but is fraught with peril in the longer term. A timeless quote from the play 'A Man For All Seasons' puts the moral and ethical repurcussions of such a course of action into stark perspective. In this scene, Sir Thomas More is berating a young protege who can't see the wood for the trees:

William Roper: So, now you give the Devil the benefit of law!
Sir Thomas More: Yes! What would you do? Cut a great road through the law to get after the Devil?
William Roper: Yes, I'd cut down every law in England to do that!
Sir Thomas More: Oh? And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned 'round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat? This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man's laws, not God's! And if you cut them down, and you're just the man to do it, do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then? Yes, I'd give the Devil benefit of law, for my own safety's sake!

It may not be in the nature of the beast to do so, but More's response is what every young warrior should consider carefully.

Very carefully. After all, you feel like you're going to live forever? Then start planning accordingly!

And, it appears they do. Another article on the current state of the Australian Army's recruitment campaign suggests so in its conclusion:

Set against a background of military misadventures based on lies about WMDs, a culture of bastardisation and the mishandling of the investigations surrounding the death of Private Jacob Kovco, computer game gimmicks are likely to (excuse the pun) sink without trace.

One final comment from Sir Thomas:

Sir Thomas More: Why Richard, it profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world... but for Wales?

Or Iraq.

We Need a Drink!

2006-09-01T14:19:00.000+10:00

It's the first day of spring in Melbourne, and the first day of stage 1 water restrictions.
A roundabout way of saying we haven't had any rain this winter!

It's been cold, though! The culprit appears to be a large high pressure squatting over the Australian Bight. This pulls cold air up from the Southern Ocean and over SE Australia. Simultaneously, the rain bearing fronts are pushed to the south as they come in from the Indian Ocean. This is a normal occurrence, but what appears to be happening this year is that the system is further south then usual. That, to me suggests that global warming is causing equatorial systems to expand which, in turn, pushes temperate weather systems to the north and south. (Brief synopsis, I'm sure the reality is a lot more complex!)

What have we got to look forward to? Look at the graph above. Catchments usually start filling mid June. Yet, here we are at the start of September, and the line's still drifting down. The last time the chart flat-lined this badly was in 1997.

More worryingly, the catchment levels have never really recovered from the 97-98 drought, averaging around 50%. With the prospect of another El Nino summer, it is likely that average will drop to 30-40%.

At this rate, I forecast that Melbourne's water supply will be in a critical state in ten years.

Banana Economy II

2006-08-20T00:16:00.000+10:00

It recently occurred to me that two unfortunate and worrying facts have combined into one rather silly one:

australian banana prices are still suffering from the aftermath of cyclone Larry ($15/kg)
australian oil prices are still suffering from the aftermath of 'shock and awe' ($1.35/litre)

Which suggests that one litre of petrol is currently worth about one banana!

(What this forebodes for the up and coming biodiesel industry is anyone's guess!)

2006-08-17T11:44:00.000+10:00

This is just a test to see how well Writely publishes to blogs
Specifically my blog!

(I've been waiting for the site accounts to be reenabled for months!)

What is Writely? An online collaborative word processor
(I know, another geek toy!)

If you feel like playing, go check it out at http://www.writely.com

I'm feeling mellow yellow!...

The question remains, how does blogspot cope with the formatting?

Don't Look, NASA!

2006-07-28T13:15:00.000+10:00

It seems that NASA's mission statement was given a subtle 'mid-course correction' last February.

Here's what it said in 2002:

"To understand and protect our home planet; to explore the universe and search for life; to inspire the next generation of explorers ... as only NASA can."

Here's how it looks as of February, 2006:

"To explore the universe and search for life; to inspire the next generation of explorers ... as only NASA can."

Whereas the 2002 statement was composed in open consultation with the scientific community, in 2006 there was no mention of this change, no advice sought, and NASA scientists have only just noticed.

Such a minor alteration, yet such a fundamental shift in priorities!

It means that NASA is no longer to be concerned with exploring the planet we live on. No longer to be involved in earth satellites that monitor the health of our home. No longer to observe the changes in climate that indicate a warming of the atmosphere. No longer to provide evidence of an inconvenient truth. No longer to have such an inconvenient sentence in its mission statement.

How convenient for the carbon lobby!

I will be following Worldchanging's Alex Steffen's advice, and shall place the omitted statement prominently on my site.

Lest we forget.

Spare Us! ... Puh-leez!!

2006-07-20T14:10:00.000+10:00

George exercised his power of veto for the first time in his career, when he blocked the bill allowing stem-call research to proceed in the US.

Seems he doesn't hold with the taking of lives

Meanwhile, it appears that the US will allow the killer attack dogs to run rampant for another week in Lebanon.

Seems he doesn't hold with terrorists kidnapping Israeli soldiers.

At the moment , in fact, the only thing he does appear willing to hold is the german chancellor!

Seems someone voted for this guy, once.

All Reason and Logic Are Gone...

2006-07-19T16:54:00.000+10:00

Winning the fight won't settle who's right.
It's sad, and it's true, and it's on!

When combatants go by the maxim of an eye for an eye, and a tooth for a tooth, then all parties are likely to end up blind and gummy!

Meanwhile, the onlookers gathered around the bull pit are emitting much smoke: It's Iran, trying to deflect attention from their nuclear ambitions! It's Syria, trying to reassert dominance in Lebanon!

If my memory serves me from the dim past recollections of last week, Hezbollah precipitated this all-out conflict by kidnapping an Israeli soldier. Not nice, and certainly provocative. But does it require an all-out shooting match? (Especially if Israel, and America, are now pointing fingers at possible agent provocateurs).

If you know it, then does it make sense to dance to the provocateur's tune?

Only if you like trampling the daisies, I guess.

Gotta plan for the future!

Astro-tourism

2006-07-03T09:16:00.000+10:00

Dig this view of a sunset on Titan taken by Cassini on June 2, 2006.

He Who Holds The Strings...

2006-06-14T13:31:00.000+10:00

...can probably do whatever he likes.

Like turn up unannounced in a foreign country and barging in on the PM with only five minutes notice, for instance.

Irrepressible

2006-05-31T15:09:00.000+10:00

The World is an amazing place and, on a clear net, you can see... just as far as your government's GoodThought firewall will let you.

It has become an increasing issue in the last year or so. Starting with China, the trend has now spread to Iran and Pakistan. More worryingly, the policies have been colluded with by western companies like Cisco, Yahoo!, and Google (Heh! How long will this blog stay up?)

Amnesty International, together with the Observer, has decided to do something about it.

The Irrepressible website is intended to highlight the problem, and to subvert it by displaying excerpts from ungood postings. The more who participate, the more those folk who just can't cope with alternate worldviews will be painted into a corner.

Pay it a visit.

The Barbie Liberation Front

2006-05-30T14:53:00.000+10:00

Little Missy is just coming from the heady heights of her fourth birthday. Had an enjoyable party, got lots of presents from various people. Some good, some... well, it's the thought that counts.

Of course, that's the protective parent talking. You know: the one who seeks to shelter their wee one from the dastardly and corrupting influences this sinful world has to offer.

Influences like... barbie dolls.

As contemptuous as I am of this synthetic queen WASP of kitsch, I had to quirk an eyebrow a while back when I heard a bizarre report that many children are deliberately mutilating their Barbies! What on earth? I wondered. Why would anyone waste time doing this? What deep psychological chilhood traumas are involved?

These thoughts resurfaced as LM was presented with a couple of examples of this ode to the consumer society, all enticingly packed, and packed, and...er packed!!? As I unpacked, and unwired, and unpacked, and... it became clear to me what the underlying cause was.

Barbie is into bondage!

Oh, it's not so overt that you'll find accessories featuring whips and black leather. No! The clues lie in all that wiring lurking in the packaging.

LM's comment as we finally liberated the torso from its prison demonstrated concern and insight:

Poor thing!!

But Barbie was smiling all the time, just as I bet she does during those mutilation rituals described.

And the thought that goes through her empty plastic head? ('thought' in the singular form for, as is the case with her wannabe: Paris Hilton, there can only be one at a time, max) In keeping with the consumerism she represents, what else could it be but:

MORE! MORE!

Back in The Yoke

2006-05-10T23:41:00.000+10:00

After about 4 weeks of the 'dole queue', I've been re-employed on a short term contract, writing python. There may be a couple of other possibilities after that. Who knows?

Four weeks is good! The last time I was in this position, the wait was more like four *months*, and that involved a stroke of luck.

Meantime, all those household maintenance chores are going to have to wait!

Banana Economy

2006-04-30T13:00:00.000+10:00

An interesting fallout from cyclone Larry, which flattened Innisfail and its surrounds about a month ago.

Since 'surrounds' consisted of a large chunk of Australia's banana crop, the laws of supply and demand have had their wicked way, with prices soaring 3-400% over the last fortnight to ~$10.00/kg.

The interesting fallout is that 'organic' bananas (as opposed to the inorganic variety sold in craft shops), which were usually double the price, are now the same ie they only doubled in price.

I can only presume that, wherever they come from wasn't affected, so they can increase their profits *and* be more competitive at the same time!!!

Me and My Big Mouth

2006-04-12T17:19:00.000+10:00

I have just added the following to the PledgeBank:

"I will contribute $500 US to the WorldChanging fund but only if 4 other people (or groups) will too."

One day on, and with ten days to go, I need just 3 more people to join me... any takers?

(Update: the pledge target has been reached, and my hip pocket is feeling the sting!)

Footloose and Fancy Free

2006-04-06T16:36:00.000+10:00

... or should that be Torino 8: ground zero?

Anyway, we condemned men convened for a lunchtime sendoff at the local pub, said our goodbyes, and went our ways into the world, with the usual noise about keeping in touch.

To that end, I've set up a simple wiki touchstone site (shakehands), where we can trade experiences, tips, and shoulders in general.

How much it gets used is ... well, to be honest, wikis just don't seem to invite participation. I don't know what it is but, on several occasions, I have 'built it' and, contrary to what that quote from "Field Of Dreams" would have you believe, no-one has come!

As ever, we shall see...

Meantime, until some kind provider of salary says 'yes', what am I going to do?

Blog?

Hopefully there's more to life than that! Besides, you've got to have done something before you can write about it.

Like gardening... and house maintenance!

Torino 8

2006-04-04T11:17:00.000+10:00

Level 8 (red): impact is certain with localised devastation.

Well, the axe has finally fallen, and I've been shown the door, as of next Thursday.
I don't know who else is being laid off yet. Guess I'll find out with everyone else.

World Changes

2006-04-03T11:00:00.000+10:00

While waiting for an incoming event* to register as a Torino 8, it is with a little irony that I note that Jamais Cascio has left WorldChanging.

Nothing is forever, and I suppose a three year stint as chief editor is a pretty good innings.

Such changes are often associated with a tinge of sadness and loss. But I choose to look at it this way: the Worldchanging team is all about picking up the pieces for a better world. What sort of future would the site have if it was predominantly Jamais?

It seems it's time to find out!

* I was informed on Thursday that I was high risk, and I am due to find out for certain tomorrow.
None of which surprises me in the least. Which is why the Torino level remains at 5, where I put it a week ago.

Resume Feedback

2006-03-31T10:30:00.000+11:00

This posting is simply a place to accept feedback on my resume.
Just add a comment below. It'll get to me.

Thanks for your time.

United We Stand (Digitally Speaking)

2006-03-27T16:56:00.000+11:00

When presidents and philosophers agree, how can mere mortals prevail?
(Looks like we're up Plato Strauss without a doubt ;-)

Torino Scale Downsizing

2006-03-27T14:21:00.000+11:00

Refer to the Torino scale that assesses the risk of asteroid collisions.

Level 1 (green): Things have been pretty slack for me at work for some time. In fact, while I haven't been completely idle (blogging aside), I don't think I've done any fee earning work for the last two years!

level 2(yellow): From the start of the year, a number of other people have been commenting on the level of slackness.

level 3(yellow): A couple of weeks ago, the director's update noted the downturn in revenue.

level 4(yellow): last thursday, the next director's update was delayed until this morning. All staff were urged to attend.

level 5(orange): having had the meeting, we learn that 10-12 people are due to be shown the door. I'm not surprised. Just who has yet been decided but, given my fee earning contributions of late, it's not looking good.

Ah, well. If it does go to level red, it won't be more than an 8: I will only expect local devastation.

Go Go Georgiou III: The Challenge

2006-03-23T16:30:00.000+11:00

According to an Age article, John Howard claims he will do nothing to undermine sitting liberal members facing preselection challenges.

Petro Georgiou, the current member for Kooyong, embarrassed Mr Howard last year when he introduced a member's bill to end Mandatory Detention. Mr Howard was forced to back down, something he is not used to doing.

He now faces a preselection challenge from Joshua Frydenberg, Mr Howard's former adviser.

Howard says of Frydenberg: "he is a very able person...and I certainly appreciate his abilities."

Howard also says: "I support all of my sitting members, and I would never do anything in a preselection campaign to undermine a sitting colleague."

In light of the first statement, do we believe this?

It all depends on how the term 'colleague' is defined.
Meanwhile, I never thought I'd side with Jeff Kennett!

A Tale of a Wiki (and a mongoose)

2006-03-23T15:12:00.000+11:00

I have just got myself a wiki.

It's at Wiki Tiki Tavi.

Why get a wiki when I've got a blog for occasional mutterings?

The reason has to do with interlinking ideas and concepts. A blog structure is predominantly linear, with posts ordered chronologically. This is fine for jotting down ideas and opinions, and for allowing comment (not that I get many of them!). It is also great for RSS feeds. However, the format does tend to stifle any other directions I care to go.

It also means that older posts tend to get lost in the mists of time (although the dreaming knows: I still get a lot of Google hits for the 'Tools of Mischief', mainly by med students looking for references to H. Pyelori ... which probably means this post will be coming to prominence as well, now!)

I had actually intended to set up my own wiki site using pmwiki but, as the result of an initiative by someone who set up an area to discuss the predictions in David Brin's novel 'Earth', I was introduced to pbwiki (pb = Peanut Butter, as in 'easy as').

Five minutes later, I was wikiing!

I will still keep the blog going. It will be for comment on breaking news, and as a diary. The wiki will be for musings of a more 'timeless' nature.

As for the name? well, run and find out!

Yeah, Right!

2006-03-22T12:32:00.000+11:00

Mr Bush is denying Iraq's former interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi comments that Iraq is in a state civil war.

George hasn't had a great track record wrt Iraq. On this occasion I'm inclined to agree with him.
Iraq is not in a state of civil war: that requires civilian participation.
Iraq is in a state of anarchy, although I doubt Iraqis caught up in this mess will notice the difference.

Also, on defending his pal Rumsfeld, Bush claims that any war plan looks good on paper until you meet the enemy.

The problem is that this mess arose because Rummy didn't *have* a plan after the actual invasion. And I haven't heard much of one in the last three years.

It's no longer a matter of who's to blame but who's to move forward. Maybe it's time to let someone who does have a clue have a go?

One final snark from that post:
"I didn't want war. To assume I wanted war is just flat wrong... No president wants war."

Well, Mr. Bush, all I can say is you're no president and there is no assumption! The Downing Street memos (July 23, 2002) have caught you out here in a blatant lie!...

"C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime's record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action."

Photos For a Terror Free Zone

2006-03-16T12:20:00.000+11:00

Those attending the Commonwealth Games, be welcome!

Enjoy yourselves! Look around! Take photos!

Lots of photos! Of everything, and anything!

It probably won't thwart a terrorist attack, but it might provide the Police with a means of rapidly reconstructing events should one occur.

Sorry to bring such thoughts to the fore. Normal service will now resume...

Those attending the Commonwealth Games, be welcome...

Commonwealth Opening Ceremony

2006-03-16T11:33:00.000+11:00

I had a couple of chuckles watching the opening ceremony for the Commonwealth Games last night.

I suspect these occasions are full of local gags that mean more to the locals than the bemused visitors. The set bits involving Melbourne icons may have registered: continual references to umbrellas were a constant reminder of the notorious weather (you were lucky folks: the rain held off, but only just). Flying trams(?!!) are a great idea to ponder in the next traffic jam, but the duck might have been a little obscure (ducks are a signature image of Michael Leunig, a local cartoonist with a very whimsical streak)

And I don't think many out of towners would have caught the dual significance of the guy carrying the torch who slogged across the Yarra on a slightly too submerged gangway to the bank!

Walking on water? It was Ron Barassi: a famous footballer of the seventies: the standing joke of the time being that a newcomer to Heaven was impressed to see 'Aussie Rules' being played, and noting the distinctive 'number 31 guernsey' commented "I see you have Ron Barassi playing!" ... "No." comes the reply. "That's God, but he likes to think he's Ron Barassi!"
Walking on water? The Yarra typically carries a lot of tannins and muddy sediment...suffice to say it is not the most pristine of waterways! It is typically referred to as the only river in the world that flows upside down. Another joke asks why Jesus didn't appear in Melbourne?... A: because walking on water would not be considered a miracle! (but it might explain Ron Barassi!)

Something Fishy in Iraq

2006-03-08T16:21:00.000+11:00

I was listening to Middle East correspondent Robert Fisk (no relation AFAIK) on the ABC morning show last Monday (March 6). In between music selections and discussing his new book, the possibility of the threat of civil war was discussed. Fisk thought it unlikely, making two points:

civil war was *not* being fomented by Iraqis: it isn't in their history, and they are *not* a divided sectarian society. You only have to look at a blog like Baghdad Burning to see this.
civil war *is* being fomented via 'death squads' with the backing of someone having connections in the Iraqi government. Just who it is, Fisk didn't know (or wasn't willing to say). He commented that it 'was a very dangerous story'. (I wouldn't argue with that!)

Now, I've just noticed a BBC article: ' US envoy warns of Iraq civil war'. In it he states:
"The US ambassador to Iraq has said that continuing sectarian violence there had the potential to turn into civil war.
In an interview with the Los Angeles Times, Zalmay Khalilzad indicated that the US had little choice but to keep a strong military presence in Iraq. "

Hmm! Using the threat of a (non-existent) sectarian based civil war that is being agitated for by non-iraqis with government connections as an excuse to keep US forces in place?

Who would want to do that?

India and Uranium, and...

2006-03-07T16:46:00.000+11:00

So, why would India need fissile material for its nuclear industry when it has a substantial fraction of the world's Thorium deposits?

Oh.... fissile material! The stuff that you can make go boom! (unlike Thorium)

And, bear in mind the 7-8 reactors India is *not* going to open up to inspectors.

I have a bad feeling about this...

Geek Musings: Mile High x20

2006-03-01T15:55:00.000+11:00

The Liftport Group has had another success: a sustained robot climb to a mile high. This has prompted me to lay out a possibly absurd idea that has been bubbling away for a while now. Like most ideas, it won't do much good in the back room. So, here it is, for all to pillage and chortle over...

Pondering:

space elevators,
the stresses the ribbon has to be able to withstand,
how to reduce those stresses.

Considering:

revenue streams.
high altitude balloons.
supplying those balloons with robots climbing up ribbons.

The irony being that:

only the first twenty miles of the ultimate journey is covered.
wind shear is likely to be a substantial fraction of the stresses to consider: especially when a category 5 hurricane drops by.
all wind shear occurs in the troposphere (ie the first twenty miles).

So, why not:

start the real journey *from* twenty miles?
place the base station/anchor above the troposhere?
suspend it from... balloons?

This gives you:

freedom from wind shear stresses
freedom to move around

Apart from the kneejerk 'that's a silly idea', I can think of more serious objections, like:

that's one big balloon!
that's a lot of (expensive) helium!
that's a long way to climb!

No problem:

a nominal 1000 tonne anchor weighs as much a 1E7 cubic metres of air at that altitude (I estimate pressure to be ~0.1atm). Think a cube of ~200m to a side: about the same dimensions as a city block. Big, but at 20 miles up, who's being crowded? Besides, use several balloons.
Yes, even at that altitude, that's a *lot* of expensive helium! So? Why use helium? Why use anything at all?
Since there are serious proposals to supply balloons at this altitude with robots climbing up ribbons anyway (or by visits from other balloons), I think this one is solved.

Err... suspending 1000 tonnes with nothing at all?

Nope, use a vacuum! You see, it's a matter of bouyancy, and an envelope whose interior pressure is 10% exterior pressure is as bouyant as if it were filled with hydrogen!
Pumping down to that pressure is a no-brainer, although the envelope needs to be braced to prevent it from collapsing.
The envelope material is the issue. Given that a one atmosphere pressure differential is something like 10 tonnes/m2, it needs to be something non-porous, very strong, and very light. Something like...ribbon cable!
One question arises, though: does one still refer to such an envelope as a 'balloon'?

It may not be feasible, it may not be practical. Hell, it may not even be original! (certainly I'm not the only one to have thought of vacuum bouyancy). Still, it's my idea, and it might be worth a short sf story. Just remember you heard it from me on this date*!

My opinions regarding patents was aired a while back so, yes, Liftport folks, if you find this through the wonders of Technorati before I post it to you, you can use it.
So can anyone else for that matter.

OK. Somebody can bring me back down to Earth now.

*Update: Tom Nugent of Liftport has kindly replied to my query. He tells me he's heard it all before, but that the notion has merit. I'm not really surprised it's been thought of before (dare I say: 'it's not rocket science'?...oooh! that one's probably done the rounds as well;-). Still, it's nice to find I'm off with the same load of pixies as a few other people!

Death And Taxes

2006-02-24T15:37:00.000+11:00

Browsing an article at Linux Online, I discovered a reference to the South African Revenue Service

A tax office with SARS as an acronym?!

...I guess it figures.

PHP Free For All

2006-02-22T15:29:00.000+11:00

It all started innocently enough.

Tim Bray posted his thoughts and (limited) experiences with the PHP language. The general tone was 'not impressed, but willing to be convinced.'

And then a lot of people jumped on the bandwagon, willing to convince him (or not). There were a pretty impressive number of responses given that 'Ongoing' doesn't have a comment feature (yet)!

My contribution is here.

I have had good experiences with PHP, but can certainly see the potential for horror stories (having spent a year de-obfuscating the most recursive spaghetti ridden legacy code you have ever seen!)

The bottom lines are:

Yes, it's easy to get started in it. (as in: easy to get a web page running!)
No, it doesn't guide the user to code intelligently (C-style structured programming being applied to a web page that is effectively reentrant can lead to lotsa pasta!)
No, it doesn't try to guide the user at all (a good thing: 'do not meddle in the affairs of wizards. They are subtle and quick to lead you down the garden path to the fairies behind the compost bin.')
Yes, there is room for improvement. Regrettable, but not a fault in itself. Athena might not have been such a headache if she had been prototyped!

Richness of feature can lead to richness of application, and useful stuff like PmWiki, for anyone wishing to run their own wiki site. I chose it for Boroondara Bushwalkers because:

it didn't require a database
PHP was the only scripting language provide by the ISP
it's pretty good

Still, those seeking both ease and elegance may find it in Spyce (which does the same thing as PHP, but uses Python)

And, of course, there's Ruby on Rails (which I have not yet investigated)

Finally, to put all this into perspective: a cautionary tale.

Anyone wishing to smell the brimstone of an environment that almost forces you to code badly need only try their hand at coding and maintaining COM objects!
On second thoughts, don't! Life is short enough as it is, and you have better things to do, trust me!

Foo was here

2006-02-22T12:47:00.000+11:00

This is nothing per se. Just a test post to investigate web graffiti.
It shouldn't vandalise the site directly but, if it does, I'd better be the guy who wears it!
(So, any blogspot administrators, I'm doing this to myself!!)

OK. Let's see....

How it works is that the target site is linked to, and the grafitti is overlaid (ie you only see the damage from the grafitti link). FWIW, the results of my wickedness can be seen here
As a means of annotation, the technique has possibilities (especially as SVG becomes more widely supported). However, I think this example is a little primitive.

The Moving Pencil

2006-02-21T10:51:00.000+11:00

One has to wonder at the reasoning of Saudi authorities when they shut down a newspaper for publishing *those* Danish cartoons.

The thing is, to my innocent Western sensibilities, the cartoons are pretty tame. I understand that any portrayal of the Prophet is proscribed, and I can understand objections to them but, face it, they were penned by non-moslems in a non-islamic state who can't and shouldn't be expected to follow the same mores. The level of reaction to them is out of all proportion to their worth.

So, are the Saudi authorities protecting the sensibilities of upright Saudi citizens, or are they protecting them from seeing for themselves what the fury is about?
Seeing them, and feeling their righteous indignation dissolve into a giggle.

Meantime, my prediction about the tee-shirts was spot on! (idiot!)

Oh, well! Here's my stir of the possum (fear not, pious viewer: the only images involved are those of the mind ;-):

The Moving Finger:

A buttonpress and martyrdom. So simple the way to Paradise!
But... only one wife?
The figure removed her veil, greeting him with a wrinkled, gap tooth grin:
’You lads never read the fine print! But really! Isn’t seventy six virgins a bit greedy?'
'Ohnono! One wife of seventy six has far more to teach!'
The crone took the horrified shade’s hand.
'Come, love, we have much to learn about each other.
And eternity for doing it!'

Update: this is a second draft, having felt that this was a story to be told in seventy six words.The original can be viewed below if you highlight the text:

A press of a button. So simple a gateway!
True, the blast had scattered Khalid's immortal wits as much as it had his body, but the young man's soul was soon able to collect his thoughts and take in his new surroundings.
Paradise! His reward for unswerving dedication to Jihad!
A shrouded figure approached... his new wife? Chaste and sweet!
But... what of the other seventy five?
The figure stopped, and removed her veil in the presence of her new lord. Rheumy eyes gazed at him kindly, and she greeted him with a wrinkled, gap tooth grin:
'Ah! Another young fool who didn't read the fine print! But really! Seventy six virgins is being a bit greedy, don't you think?'
'Ohnono, my sweet! It's felt that one wife numbering seventy six is far more able to teach an inexperienced young firebrand a thing or two about the universe!'
With a cackle, the crone took Khalid's horrified shade by the hand and led him away.
'Come, my love, we have a lot to learn about each other.
And a long time in which to learn it!'

Emancipating the Spirit of Humanity

2006-02-17T15:36:00.000+11:00

If you want some sobering viewing, take a look at this video clip. One of Ed Burtynsky's images is reproduced here.

It looks like a lava flow, doesn't it?
It isn't.

Seems hopeless, doesn't it?
It isn't.

Want to do something about it?
You can

I have a permanent link to the WorldChanging site to the right there (see it?). These guys act as a clearing house, trying to find all the little ideas that, when put together, would help us out of the ecological disasters that are awaiting us.

Other than a few posting comments, and an offer to volunteer which wasn't taken up, that's the extent of my involvement.

Still, they've been doing a great job, and hope to do even better. They've just started a drive to reach those ideas that aren't part of the english speaking world. Indeed, which aren't yet part of the web.

This will require a little more proactiveness on their part which, in turn, will require money. They are after $150,000US. Now, the target isn't as steep as it looks, since all contributions will be matched by two benefactors 2:1 (so the total currently unpledged is $50,000)

So, consider making a donation.

And be inspired. Be emacipated from the mindset that we will fail in this.

Chaining the Spirit of Enquiry

2006-02-15T12:30:00.000+11:00

How does this make sense?

NASA's budget cuts:

Keep the shuttle flying
Cancel Europa mission
Cancel Starfinder telescope

I could rant on (and I'm going to in a minute). First, though, you can see more reasoned objections by the Planetary Society's Louis Friedman.

OK. Now it's my turn!

It was an Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, who observed that 80% of income in Italy was received by 20% of the Italian population. This observation was later later enshrined as the 'Pareto Principle', and is a very simple but effective tool for detecting where most costs are incurred and, therefore, where the most effective cost reductions can be made.

Consider:

Most of the budget is allocated to the shuttle program
Some of the budget is allocated to the ISS program
A little of the budget is allocated to the Space Exploration program

Where would you apply cuts if you wanted to save money? An economist like Pareto would have wept at the cuts that are actually being considered.

Now consider:

Most returns come from the Space Exploration program
Some returns come from the ISS program
Almost no returns come from the shuttle program

Where would you apply cuts if you wanted to kill off the spirit of enquiry?

Now does it make sense? It isn't really about Pareto and good budgetting, is it?

But, why would you *want* to kill off the spirit of enquiry?

Don't ask me: I certainly wouldn't!

Better ask George Deutch, who insisted that all references to the Big Bang be accompanied by the word 'theory', and who tried to block media access to NASA scientists who were too outspoken on climate change.

Better ask his patrons, who placed him as NASA Press officer without any credentials.

Better ask the right wing religious zealots who would probably find the prospect of life on Europa a little difficult to explain in terms that the bible of choice can encompass.

Watched/read the latest Harry Potter film? Do you recall the bit where, having cut off his hand to resurrect Voldemort, Pettigrew is so slavishly grateful when his master offhandedly grants him a new one?

"And it came to pass that the world changed, and the minds of men grew strange and wayward,
No more did they look into the evening heavens, and wonder.
Instead they came to shun the night, and grew fearful of it.

So it was that, forgetting what they knew, the people populated the void with dragons,
And called upon their gods for salvation from what lay outside the flickering lights of their hearth fires.
And the priests of these gods looked upon their work, and saw that it was good."

The good news is that the vast majority of humanity don't have the same mindset as Deutsch and his patrons.

The war on tyranny will be won.